The Progressive Corporation, 2019

In early 2019, The Progressive Corporation (Progressive), the USA’s third-largest auto insurance writer, reported earned premiums were up 20% in 2018 compared to the previous year, and net income was up 64%. Direct sales of personal auto policies rose 21%, while agent sales, which had, until recently been slowing, grew 16%. Homeowner policies were up 30% on a small base. For CEO Tricia Griffith, appointed on July 1, 2016, this was a clear indicator that her commitment to accelerating growth was bearing fruit. In the ten years from 2005 to 2015, Progressive’s earned premiums had grown at 4% per year. They then grew 13% in 2016, 15% in 2017, and 20% in 2018. In 2018, Progressive captured 10% of the auto insurance business in the USA. Griffith commented that Progressive was in 10% of U.S. homes and would double that “in short order.” This would make it larger than 2018 industry leader, State Farm. But the auto insurance business was plagued with hundreds of competitors and had historically been very cyclical. Would Griffith’s strategy be enough to sustain double digit growth? The markets seemed convinced; in July 2019, Progressive’s stock price had almost doubled in two years.