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• Case | HBS Case Collection | February 2020 (Revised June 2020)

  Getting Brexit Done

  Alberto Cavallo

  Citation:

  Cavallo, Alberto. "Getting Brexit Done." Harvard Business School Case 720-023, February 2020. (Revised June 2020.)  View Details

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• Case | HBS Case Collection | May 2020 (Revised June 2020)

  The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)

  Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

  In April 2020, the world struggled to contain the exponential escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Dozens of countries had imposed restrictions on travel, work, and social gatherings. A large share of the global population was under lockdowns and unprecedented supply and demand disruptions crippled the economy. In response, central banks announced massive lending programs to avoid a financial meltdown, and governments were launching unprecedented fiscal packages designed to contain the collapse. In a matter of weeks, the pandemic turned into one of the worst global economic crises since the Great Depression. As governments struggled to make policy decisions, uncertainty and tensions were rising. How to balance the public health and economic concerns? What would be the economic and political consequences of the policy response? Was this the end of globalization, or the beginning of a new era of international cooperation? The only certainty was that some of the hardest choices still lay ahead.

  Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Finance; Central Banking; Financial Markets; International Finance; Globalization; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Decision Making; Macroeconomics; Employment; Crisis Management; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Air Transportation Industry; Banking Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Employment Industry; Financial Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Health Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Service Industry; Shipping Industry; Tourism Industry; Travel Industry; Asia; China; Europe; Latin America; Africa; United States;

  Citation:

  Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)." Harvard Business School Case 720-031, May 2020. (Revised June 2020.)  View Details

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• Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2020

  Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets

  Alberto Cavallo

  The Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. I use publicly-available data on credit and debit card transactions to update the official CPI weights and re-calculate inflation with Covid consumption baskets. I find that the US CPI \emph{underestimated} the Covid inflation rate, particularly during the first three months of the Pandemic, as consumers spent relatively more on food and categories with inflation, and less on transportation and other categories experiencing deflation. By September, US Covid inflation was 1.90\% compared to 1.41\% in the official CPI, and was impacting low-income households the most. I also find evidence of higher Covid inflation in 12 out of 19 additional countries.

  Keywords: COVID; consumer expenditures; CPI; inflation; Health Pandemics; Consumer Behavior; Spending; Inflation and Deflation; Global Range;

  Citation:

  Cavallo, Alberto. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27352, June 2020. (Revised October 2020. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-124, May 2020)  View Details

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