Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries

Alberto  Cavallo; Erwin  Diewert; Robert C. Feenstra; Robert  Inklaar; Marcel P. Timmer

Article | AEA Papers and Proceedings | May 2018

Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries

by Alberto Cavallo, Erwin Diewert, Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer

Abstract

We show that online prices can be used to construct quarterly purchasing power parities (PPPs) with a closely matched set of goods and identical methodologies in a variety of developed and developing countries. Our results are close to those reported by the International Comparisons Program (ICP) in 2011 and the OECD in 2014 and can be used to obtain more up-to-date estimates of real consumption across countries without the need for consumer price index extrapolations. We discuss advantages and limitations associated with the use of online prices for PPPs, including issues of representativeness and limited coverage of product categories and countries.

Keywords: Purchasing power parity; international economy; Online Prices; billion prices project; Economics; Macroeconomics; Price; Internet; Spending; Economy; Global Range; Measurement and Metrics;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Cavallo, Alberto, Erwin Diewert, Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer. "Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries." AEA Papers and Proceedings 108 (May 2018): 483–487.

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The webcast for our presentation at the 2018 Annual AEA Conference
Data and Replication Files

The data and code needed to replicate the results in this paper are available on Harvard University's Dataverse

Case | HBS Case Collection | May 2020 (Revised June 2020)

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)

Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

In April 2020, the world struggled to contain the exponential escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Dozens of countries had imposed restrictions on travel, work, and social gatherings. A large share of the global population was under lockdowns and unprecedented supply and demand disruptions crippled the economy. In response, central banks announced massive lending programs to avoid a financial meltdown, and governments were launching unprecedented fiscal packages designed to contain the collapse. In a matter of weeks, the pandemic turned into one of the worst global economic crises since the Great Depression. As governments struggled to make policy decisions, uncertainty and tensions were rising. How to balance the public health and economic concerns? What would be the economic and political consequences of the policy response? Was this the end of globalization, or the beginning of a new era of international cooperation? The only certainty was that some of the hardest choices still lay ahead.

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Finance; Central Banking; Financial Markets; International Finance; Globalization; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Decision Making; Macroeconomics; Employment; Crisis Management; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Air Transportation Industry; Banking Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Employment Industry; Financial Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Health Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Service Industry; Shipping Industry; Tourism Industry; Travel Industry; Asia; China; Europe; Latin America; Africa; United States;

Citation:

Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)." Harvard Business School Case 720-031, May 2020. (Revised June 2020.) View Details

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The Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in consumer expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the measurement of CPI inflation. I use data collected from credit and debit transactions in the US to update the official basket weights. I find that the Covid inflation rate is higher for both headline and core CPIs, particularly for low-income households. I find similar results in 12 of 17 additional countries. The difference is growing over time as consumers spend relatively more on food and categories with rising inflation, and relatively less on transportation and categories experiencing significant deflation.

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Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries

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