Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Bo  Becker; Victoria  Ivashina

Article | Review of Finance | February 2018

Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Abstract

By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a crowding out of corporate lending. For a given domestic firm, new debt is less likely to be a loan—i.e., the loan supply contracts—when local banks have purchased more domestic sovereign debt and when that debt is risky (as measured by CDS spreads). These effects are most pronounced in the period following the second Greek bailout in early 2010.

Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Europe;

Format: Print

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Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Review of Finance 22, no. 1 (February 2018): 83–115.

This case is a setting to discuss “loan to own” investment strategy that is often pursued by distressed investors. The aftermath of the 2007 financial crisis left many companies with poor liquidity and limited ability to obtain credit. One of these companies was Pierre Foods, a producer and distributor of processed and precooked protein products that had experienced several years of promising sales growth and held a leading market position. Despite this, 2007 saw Pierre foods adversely affected by a spike in production costs and unsustainably high leverage. This made Pierre Foods an attractive opportunity for Oaktree Capital Management, allowing them to employ its strategy of investing in distressed debt securities with the goal of leading a restructuring during which their debt investment would be converted into a controlling equity stake. The challenge of executing “loan to own” strategy is being able to identify ahead of the restructuring the debt layer that stands to become equity (the so called “fulcrum security”). Overall, this case can be used to understand unique elements of a representative distressed investment. It can also be used as a platform for discussing sources of value and risks associated with distressed investing.

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Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

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