Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50%) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35%). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers with lower incomes and housing wealth have significantly higher marginal propensity to consume. Areas with a larger share of ARMs were more responsive to lower interest rates and saw a relative decline in defaults and an increase in house prices, car purchases, and employment. Household balance sheets and mortgage contract rigidity are important for monetary policy pass-through.
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru, and Vincent Yao. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging."American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 2017): 3550–3588. (Note: this is a combined version of working papers Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging by M. Di Maggio, A. Kermani and R. Ramcharan previously Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review and Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy by B. Keys, T. Piskorski, A. Seru, and V. Yao previously Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy.)
Esty, Benjamin C., Marco Di Maggio, and Greg Saldutte. "Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 218-726, June 2018. (Revised October 2018.)
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Snap, the disappearing message app, went public at $17 per share on March 2, 2017, making its two 20-something founders the youngest self-made billionaires in the country. Over the next three weeks, 14 analysts made investment recommendations on Snap: two with buy recommendations, six with holds, and six with sells. When the “IPO quiet period” expired three weeks later, 16 more analysts—who worked at firms that were underwriters for the IPO—issued recommendations: 10 with buy and six with hold, with price targets ranging from $21 to $31 compared to a market price of $23. Elizabeth Kemp, the portfolio manager of a long-only technology fund at Sand Hill Road Capital, had bought 500,000 shares at the IPO price and had to decide whether to harvest her gain or to double down and buy more shares.
Di Maggio, Marco, and Benjamin C. Esty. "Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A), (B), and (C)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 218-101, June 2018. (Revised October 2018.)
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