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  • June 2018
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  • American Economic Review

Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France

By: Vincent Pons
  • Format:Print
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Abstract

This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized door-to-door visits at the individual level, the scale of this campaign (five million doors knocked) enabled randomization by precinct, the level at which vote shares are recorded administratively. Visits did not affect turnout but increased Hollande's vote share in the first round and accounted for one-fourth of his victory margin in the second. Visits' impact persisted in later elections, suggesting a lasting persuasion effect.

Keywords

Voting; Political Elections; Interpersonal Communication; France

Citation

Pons, Vincent. "Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France." American Economic Review 108, no. 6 (June 2018): 1322–1363. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-079, January 2016.)

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About The Author

Vincent Pons

Business, Government and the International Economy
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