Operations in the On-Demand Economy: Staffing Services with Self-Scheduling Capacity

Itai  Gurvich; Martin  Lariviere; Antonio  Moreno

Working Paper | 2016

Operations in the On-Demand Economy: Staffing Services with Self-Scheduling Capacity

by Itai Gurvich, Martin Lariviere and Antonio Moreno

Abstract

Motivated by recent innovations in service delivery such as ride-sharing services and work-from-home call centers, we study capacity management when workers self-schedule. Our service provider chooses capacity to maximize its profit (revenue from served customers minus capacity costs) over a horizon. Because demand varies over the horizon, the provider benefits from flexibility to adjust its capacity from period to period. However, the firm controls its capacity only indirectly through compensation. The agents have the flexibility to choose when they will or will not work and they optimize their schedules based on the compensation offered and their individual availability. To guarantee adequate capacity, the firm must offer sufficiently high compensation. The goal of this paper is to examine how a firm that allows its agents to self schedule solves this problem.

An augmented newsvendor formula captures the tradeoffs for the firm and the agents. If the firm could keep the flexibility but summon as many agents as it wants (i.e,. have direct control) for the same wages it would not only generate higher profit, as is expected, but would also provide better service levels to its customers. If the agents require a "minimum wage" to remain in the agent pool they will have to relinquish some of their flexibility. To pay a minimum wage the firm must restrict the number of agents that can work in some time intervals.

The costs to the firm are countered by the self-scheduling firm's flexibility to match supply to varying demand. If the pool of agents is sufficiently large relative to peak demand, the firm earns more than it would if it had control of agents' schedules but had to maintain a fixed staffing level over the horizon.

Keywords: strategic servers; on-demand economy; independent capacity; distributed systems; service operations; Uber; Service Operations; Performance Capacity;

Language: English

Format: Print

SSRN

Citation:

Gurvich, Itai, Martin Lariviere, and Antonio Moreno. "Operations in the On-Demand Economy: Staffing Services with Self-Scheduling Capacity." Working Paper, June 2016.

The Indian banknote demonetization in 2016 was one of the most significant international events of that year. Overnight, 86% of Indian currency in circulation was declared invalid unless exchanged for new bills. The sudden and unexpected demonetization constituted a large shock to the entire Indian economy. One effect of the ensuing cash shortage was a large and sustained increase in the adoption and usage of digital payments. We use detailed sales data consisting of more than two and a half million transactions from a leading Indian online retailer to empirically investigate the effects of payment digitization on the online retail industry. We take advantage of the demonetization as a source of exogenous variation that induced a subset of consumers to switch to digital payments from more commonly used cash-on-delivery payments. We show that consumers who switch to digital payments maintain their purchase frequency but spend more and are less likely to return their purchases. Our findings show that firms in emerging markets may enjoy gains from consumer demand in addition to operational gains resulting from payment digitization.

Article | Production and Operations Management | October 2018

The Operational Value of Social Media Information

Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang

While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to do that by empirically studying whether using publicly available social media information can improve the accuracy of daily sales forecasts. We collaborated with an online apparel retailer to assemble a dataset that combines (1) detailed internal operational information, including data on sales, advertising, and promotions, as well as (2) publicly available social media information obtained from Facebook. We implement a variety of machine learning methods to forecast daily sales. We find that using social media information results in statistically significant improvements in the out-of-sample accuracy of the forecasts, with relative improvements ranging from 12.85% to 23.23% over different forecast horizons. We also demonstrate that nonlinear boosting models with feature selection, such as random forests, perform significantly better than traditional linear models. The best-performing method (random forest) yields an out-of-sample mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.21% when not using social media information and 5.73% when using social media information is used. In both cases, this significantly improves the accuracy of the company's internal forecasts (a MAPE of 11.97%). Combining these empirical results, we provide recommendations for forecasting sales in general as well as with social media information.

Keywords: social media; Machine learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction;

Citation:

Cui, Ruomeng, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno, and Dennis J. Zhang. "The Operational Value of Social Media Information." Special Issue on Big Data in Supply Chain Management. Production and Operations Management 27, no. 10 (October 2018): 1749–1774. View Details

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Operations in the On-Demand Economy: Staffing Services with Self-Scheduling Capacity

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