The Future of Mobility: Economic, Environmental, and Social Implications

This technical note explores how advancements in technology are fundamentally transforming how consumers interact with mobility. Transformation is being driven by three independent trends: the emergence of affordable electric vehicles, the development of autonomous vehicles, and the growth of modernized ride sharing. When integrated, these trends create a transportation model that utilizes a fleet of autonomous, electric vehicles that are not privately owned to provide cheaper, safer, and "greener" travel to more consumers, more often. The potential economy-wide disruptions caused by this transportation system are enormous. How will car manufacturers adapt when vehicle sales plummet as shared, autonomous vehicles increase vehicle utilization and provide greater mobility with a fraction of the number of cars currently on the road? How will oil companies react to falling oil demand caused by the increased adoption of electric vehicles? What are the income inequality ramifications of significantly increased disposable income? How will governments deal with large increases in unemployment as autonomous cars replace professional human drivers? Before disruption occurs, corporate leaders must be prepared to usher their organization through a phase of transformational change; but change is hard. The note ends with a discussion on how to build and lead a successful ambidextrous organization.