More from these Authors

• Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2020

  The Targeting and Impact of Paycheck Protection Program Loans to Small Businesses

  Alexander Bartik, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton and Adi Sunderam

  The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) aimed to quickly deliver hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to small businesses, with the loans administered via private banks. In this paper, we use firm-level data to document the demand and supply of PPP funds. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that PPP loans led to a 14 to 30 percentage point increase in a business’s expected survival, and a positive but imprecise effect on employment. Moreover, the effects on survival were heterogeneous and highlight an important tradeoff faced by policymakers: while administering the loans via private banks allowed for rapid delivery of funds, it also limited the government’s ability to target the funding—instead allowing pre-existing connections between businesses and banks to determine which firms would benefit from the program.

  Keywords: Paycheck Protection Program; targeting; Impact; Entrepreneurship; Health Pandemics; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Outcome or Result; United States;

  Citation:

  Bartik, Alexander, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton, and Adi Sunderam. "The Targeting and Impact of Paycheck Protection Program Loans to Small Businesses." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-021, August 2020.  View Details

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• Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2020

  Predictable Financial Crises

  Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jakob Ahm Sørensen, Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

  Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms.

  Keywords: Financial Crisis; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods;

  Citation:

  Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-130, June 2020.  View Details

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• Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2020

  Predictable Financial Crises

  Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jakob Ahm Sørensen, Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

  Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms.

  Keywords: Financial Crisis; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods;

  Citation:

  Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-130, June 2020.  View Details

  CiteView Details Read Now

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