Turkey and Russia: Dangerous Liaisons

Rawi  Abdelal; Esel  Çekin; Eren  Kuzucu; Gamze  Yucaoglu

Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2017

Turkey and Russia: Dangerous Liaisons

by Rawi Abdelal, Esel Çekin, Eren Kuzucu and Gamze Yucaoglu

Abstract

The case opens in November 2015, after the Turkish military’s shooting down of a Russian military airplane over the Turkish-Syrian border. The incident threatened to undermine the countries’ political and economic ties, and starting from late 2015, the dialogue between Ankara and Moscow was suspended for several months. The case explores the initial steps toward rapprochement in June 2016. The central dilemma is this: whether in light of the existing uncertainties companies operating in both countries can resume their investments and commercial activities, or should decisions be put on hold? What is the best strategy during such turbulent times? Can companies bet that a reunion would last?

Keywords: Russia; Turkey; Business ＆ government relations; politics; energy policy; infrastructure; energy; Natural Gas; natural resources; nuclear power; international relations; strategy; Business and Government Relations; Energy; Strategy; International Relations; Russia; Turkey;

Language: English

Format: Print

24 pages

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Citation:

Abdelal, Rawi, Esel Çekin, Eren Kuzucu, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Turkey and Russia: Dangerous Liaisons." Harvard Business School Case 717-035, January 2017.

The collapse of central authority in the Soviet Union in 1991 ushered in a period of revolutionary transformations for the states that emerged in its wake. The leaders of Russia, the USSR's successor, struggled to reestablish central authority while also seeking to avoid further disintegration, establish a democratic polity, and institute a market economy across the next several years. Russia would navigate further economic crisis and a swiftly evolving geopolitical order as it returned to the world stage. The case examines the different governance approaches adopted by Presidents Boris Yeltsin, Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, and concludes with a discussion of Russia’s strategic challenges and opportunities in 2020. The case focuses on problems of state authority; fiscal capacity; institutionalization of political parties; relations between the federal center and provincial governments; relations between the state and big business; economic policy; international relations; and models of economic development.

Article | Notes de l'Ifri | January 23, 2020

Sanctions and the End of Trans-Atlanticism: Iran, Russia, and the Unintended Division of the West

Rawi Abdelal and Aurélie Bros

Sanctions have become the dominant tool of statecraft in the United States and other Western states, especially the European Union, since the end of the Cold War. But the systematic use of this instrument may produce unintended and somewhat paradoxical geopolitical consequences. The sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation in the field of energy are particularly illustrative of this phenomenon.
Firstly, Iran and Russia demonstrated their resilience and a real ability to adapt, thus transforming the perspective to European companies. One of Tehran's responses to sanctions was to establish the so-called "resistance economy" in order to make Iran resistant to all kinds of economic shocks and reduce the reliance on a single commodity. For its part, Russia has adapted and offered new perspective to European and Asian businesses by creating a precedent with the case of Total. Some European companies are not ready to operate according to these rules—at least in the gas sector, as oil is too risky relative to U.S. policy and law.
Secondly, differences in the approach of the United States and Europe over the type and intensity of economic statecraft against both Iran and Russia have increasingly undermined trans-Atlanticism. The so-called secondary sanctions imposed on both Iran and Russia have become the primary vehicle for signaling and even implementing a decoupling of U.S. and European political objectives. On the one hand, the costs of complying with U.S. secondary sanctions is perceived as too high for European companies. On the other, Europeans are not ready to bear the consequences of internal U.S. divisions.
All of this might even have reinvigorated the European project, by triggering a debate on the need for European countries to protect their economic sovereignty. The European Green Deal might become the emerging unifying theme that might relaunch the European project and make Europe a fully-fledged geopolitical actor.

Keywords: geopolitics; economic sanctions; International Relations; United States; Russia; Iran; Europe;

Citation:

Abdelal, Rawi, and Aurélie Bros. "Sanctions and the End of Trans-Atlanticism: Iran, Russia, and the Unintended Division of the West." Notes de l'Ifri (January 23, 2020). View Details

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The case opens in 2019 as Aytul Ercil, co-founder and CEO of Vispera, computer vision technology provider for retail, is contemplating the company’s agenda trying to decide how to prioritize the impeding options. The case chronicles the founding of Vispera, the iterations of its technology and its business model, and lays the ground for the competitive outlook. The case provides a detailed overview of how Vispera’s technology and its automated visual analysis help retail and fast-moving consumer goods companies around the world to minimize stock-outs, increase sales, reduce personnel costs, and improve operational efficiency. In 2016, the debut of Amazon Go urges the retail players to up their game vis-à-vis technology. Demand for automation and computer vision in the retail surges. In a land-grab market, Vispera strives to grow globally, differentiate itself, keep its technology cutting edge, and raise capital. In 2019, taking a step back from all of the daily to-dos, Ercil needs to consider the big picture for making Vispera a leading global player. She needs to consider the following: Should the team focus on developing shelf availability and out-of-stock prediction capabilities or focus on dynamic pricing, customization, and real-time campaign management? Should Vispera pivot to provide insights beyond the shelf as was already being done by players entering the space? How should the team think about data ownership: Could Vispera leverage the data to drive cross industry insights or market level perspective?

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Turkey and Russia: Dangerous Liaisons

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