Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict

Stephen  Chaudoin; Zachary  Peskowitz; Christopher  Stanton

Article | Journal of Conflict Resolution | January 2017

Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict

by Stephen Chaudoin, Zachary Peskowitz and Christopher Stanton

Abstract

There is a tremendous amount of variation in conflict intensity both across and within civil conflicts. Some conflicts result in huge numbers of battle deaths, while others do not. Conflict intensity is also dynamic. Conflict intensity escalates, deescalates, and persists. What explains this variation? We take one of the most prominent explanations for the onset and occurrence of civil conflict—variation in economic conditions—and apply it to the intensity and dynamics of civil conflict. Using an instrumental variables strategy and a rich set of empirical models, we find that the intensity of conflict is negatively related to per capita income. We also find that economic conditions affect conflict dynamics, as poorer countries are likely to experience longer and more intense spells of fighting after the onset of conflict.

Keywords: civil wars; political economy; conflict; trade interdependence; War; Microeconomics;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Chaudoin, Stephen, Zachary Peskowitz, and Christopher Stanton. "Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 1 (January 2017): 56–83.

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Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict

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