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  • 2016
  • Working Paper
  • HBS Working Paper Series

Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance Against Elite Betrayal

By: Rafael Di Tella and Julio J. Rotemberg
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
  • | Pages:34
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Abstract

We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice model yields a preference for incompetent leaders. These deliver worse material outcomes in general, but they reduce the feelings of betrayal during bad times. Some evidence consistent with our model is gathered from the Trump-Clinton 2016 election: on average, subjects primed with the importance of competence in policymaking decrease their support for Trump, the candidate who scores lower on competence in our survey. But two groups respond to the treatment with a large (between 5 and 7 percentage points) increase in their support for Donald Trump: those living in rural areas and those that are low educated, white, and living in urban and suburban areas.

Keywords

Corruption; Betrayal; Populism; Incompetence; Literacy; Crime and Corruption; Income; Ethics; Political Elections; Race; Residency

Citation

Di Tella, Rafael, and Julio J. Rotemberg. "Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance Against Elite Betrayal." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-056, December 2016.
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About The Author

Rafael M. Di Tella

Business, Government and the International Economy
→More Publications

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    Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

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    Does Social Media Cause Polarization? Evidence from Access to Twitter Echo Chambers during the 2019 Argentine Presidential Debate

    By: Rafael Di Tella, Ramiro H. Gálvez and Ernesto Schargrodsky
More from the Authors
  • The Trouble with TCE By: Vincent Pons and Rafael Di Tella
  • Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
  • Does Social Media Cause Polarization? Evidence from Access to Twitter Echo Chambers during the 2019 Argentine Presidential Debate By: Rafael Di Tella, Ramiro H. Gálvez and Ernesto Schargrodsky
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