Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

Wenxin  Du; Carolin E. Pflueger; Jesse  Schreger

Working Paper

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

by Wenxin Du, Carolin E. Pflueger and Jesse Schreger

Abstract

Nominal debt provides consumption-smoothing benefits if it can be inflated away during recessions. However, we document empirically that countries with more countercyclical inflation, where nominal debt provides better consumption-smoothing, issue more foreign-currency debt. We propose that monetary policy credibility explains the currency composition of sovereign debt and nominal bond risks in the presence of risk-averse investors. In our model, low credibility governments inflate during recessions, generating excessively countercyclical inflation in addition to the standard inflationary bias. With countercyclical inflation, investors require risk premia on nominal debt, making nominal debt issuance costly for low credibility governments. We provide empirical support for this mechanism, showing that countries with higher nominal bond-stock betas have significantly larger nominal bond risk premia and borrow less in local currency.

Keywords: Sovereign Finance;

Language: English

Format: Print

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Citation:

Du, Wenxin, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22592, September 2016.

After more than 40 years of membership in the European Union, the United Kingdom voted via referendum to separate from the EU on June 23, 2016. Following the surprise verdict (termed Brexit), a political upheaval followed, with many ministers, including Prime Minister David Cameron, resigning or being sacked, and markets collapsed. As markets recovered, Theresa May was chosen as the new prime minister of the UK in charge of leading the separation.
The future of the UK and its relationship with Europe was uncertain. No country had ever left the EU before, so there was no precedent to follow and no clear indication of what the UK planned to do after exiting. Why had the British voted to leave? Would the UK and the EU be able to agree on a mutually beneficial arrangement? What would be the effects, politically and economically, on the UK and European countries? The impact of the disunion on the relationship between the EU and the UK was yet to be seen.

Nominal debt provides consumption-smoothing benefits if it can be inflated away during recessions. However, we document empirically that countries with more countercyclical inflation, where nominal debt provides better consumption smoothing, issue more foreign-currency debt. We propose that monetary policy credibility explains the currency composition of sovereign debt and nominal bond risks in the presence of risk-averse investors. In our model, low credibility governments inflate during recessions, generating excessively countercyclical inflation in addition to the standard inflationary bias. With countercyclical inflation, investors require risk premia on nominal debt, making nominal debt issuance costly for low credibility governments. We provide empirical support for this mechanism, showing that countries with higher nominal bond-stock betas have significantly larger nominal bond risk premia and borrow less in local currency.

We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign currency–denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross-country correlations, and lower sensitivity to global risk factors. We discuss several major sources of credit-spread differentials, including positively correlated credit and currency risk, selective default, capital controls, and various financial market frictions.

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Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

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