Who Neglects Risk? Investor Experience and the Credit Boom

Sergey  Chernenko; Samuel Gregory Hanson; Adi   Sunderam

Article | Journal of Financial Economics | November 2016

Who Neglects Risk? Investor Experience and the Credit Boom

by Sergey Chernenko, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Adi Sunderam

Abstract

Many have argued that overoptimistic thinking on the part of lenders helps fuel credit booms. We use new microdata on mutual funds' holdings of securitizations to examine which investors are susceptible to such boom-time thinking. We show that firsthand experience plays a key role in shaping investors' beliefs. During the 2003–2007 mortgage boom, inexperienced fund managers loaded up on securitizations linked to nonprime mortgages, accumulating twice the holdings of more seasoned managers. Moreover, inexperienced managers who personally experienced severe or recent adverse investment outcomes behaved more like seasoned managers. Training and institutional memory can serve as partial substitutes for personal experience.

Keywords: Risk Management; Investment; Experience and Expertise;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Chernenko, Sergey, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Adi Sunderam. "Who Neglects Risk? Investor Experience and the Credit Boom." Journal of Financial Economics 122, no. 2 (November 2016): 248–269. (Internet Appendix Here.)

We develop three novel measures of how much of the price impact of their trading different mutual funds internalize. We show that mutual funds that internalize more of their price impact hold larger cash buffers and use these buffers more aggressively to accommodate inflows and outflows. As a result, stocks held by these funds have lower volatility, and flows out of these funds have smaller spillover effects on other funds holding the same securities. Our results provide evidence of meaningful fire sale externalities in the mutual fund industry.

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Who Neglects Risk? Investor Experience and the Credit Boom

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