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• Article | Brookings Papers on Economic Activity | Fall 2020

  Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis

  Robin Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson and David Thesmar

  In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many surviving firms will need to be downsized or acquired. In normal times, this triage is supported by the court system, banks, and financial markets. The goal of this paper is to size up the coming surge of financial distress, list the challenges it presents in the current environment, and offer potential policy solutions. Overall, our analysis suggests that the two key issues will be court congestion and excess liquidation and failure of small firms.

  Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Economy; System Shocks; Financial Crisis; Restructuring;

  Citation:

  Greenwood, Robin, Benjamin Iverson, and David Thesmar. "Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 2020).  View Details

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• Article | Brookings Papers on Economic Activity | Fall 2020

  Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era

  Samuel Gregory Hanson, Adi Sunderam, Jeremy C. Stein and Eric Zwick

  We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business-lending and corporate-bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the classic lender-of-last-resort thinking that underpinned much of the response to the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, an effective policy response to the pandemic will require the government to accept the prospect of significant losses on credit extended to private sector firms.

  Keywords: COVID-19; business lending; government intervention; econometric models; Health Pandemics; Credit; Governance; Policy;

  Citation:

  Hanson, Samuel Gregory, Adi Sunderam, Jeremy C. Stein, and Eric Zwick. "Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 2020).  View Details

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• Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2020

  Predictable Financial Crises

  Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jakob Ahm Sørensen, Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

  Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms.

  Keywords: Financial Crisis; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods;

  Citation:

  Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-130, June 2020.  View Details

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