Publications
Publications
- 2015
- Quarterly Journal of Political Science
Aid and the Rise and Fall of Conflict in the Muslim World
By: Faisal Z Ahmed and Eric D. Werker
Abstract
The conflict following the Arab Spring is not the first wave of civil war in the Muslim world in recent time. From the mid-1980s to the end of the century, an average of one in 10 predominantly Muslim countries experienced violent civil war in any given year. We provide a partial explanation for this statistic: a foreign aid windfall to poor, non-oil producing Muslim countries during the twin oil crises of the 1970s allowed the recipient states to become more repressive and stave off rebellion. When oil prices fell in the mid-1980s, the windfall ended, and the recipient countries experienced a significant uptick in civil war. To provide a causal interpretation we leverage a quasi-natural experiment of oil price induced aid disbursements that favored Muslim countries over non-Muslim countries. Our empirical findings are consistent with existing theories that foreign aid can "buy" stability.
Keywords
Citation
Ahmed, Faisal Z., and Eric D. Werker. "Aid and the Rise and Fall of Conflict in the Muslim World." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 10, no. 2 (2015): 155–186.