Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Faculty & Research
  • Faculty
  • Research
  • Featured Topics
  • Academic Units
  • …→
  • Harvard Business School→
  • Faculty & Research→
Publications
Publications
  • Article
  • Nature Climate Change

How Warm Days Increase Belief in Global Warming

By: Lisa Zaval, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Eric J. Johnson and Elke U. Weber
  • Format:Print
ShareBar

Abstract

Climate change judgments can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgments. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Keywords

Climate Change; Attitudes

Citation

Zaval, Lisa, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Eric J. Johnson, and Elke U. Weber. "How Warm Days Increase Belief in Global Warming." Nature Climate Change 4, no. 2 (February 2014): 143–147.
  • Find it at Harvard
  • Purchase

About The Author

Elizabeth A. Keenan

Marketing
→More Publications

More from the Authors

    • March 2021
    • Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

    Opting-in to Prosocial Incentives

    By: Daniel Schwartz, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Alex Imas and Ayelet Gneezy
    • July 2020
    • Nature Human Behaviour

    Higher Economic Inequality Intensifies the Financial Hardship of People Living in Poverty by Fraying the Community Buffer

    By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Barnabas Szaszi, Marcel Lukas, David Smerdon, Jaideep Prabhu and Elke U. Weber
    • November 2019
    • Behavioural Public Policy

    When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects

    By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber and Eric J. Johnson
More from the Authors
  • Opting-in to Prosocial Incentives By: Daniel Schwartz, Elizabeth A. Keenan, Alex Imas and Ayelet Gneezy
  • Higher Economic Inequality Intensifies the Financial Hardship of People Living in Poverty by Fraying the Community Buffer By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Barnabas Szaszi, Marcel Lukas, David Smerdon, Jaideep Prabhu and Elke U. Weber
  • When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber and Eric J. Johnson
ǁ
Campus Map
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163
→Map & Directions
→More Contact Information
  • Make a Gift
  • Site Map
  • Jobs
  • Harvard University
  • Trademarks
  • Policies
  • Digital Accessibility
Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College