Selling to a Moving Target: Dynamic Marketing Effects in US Presidential Elections

Doug J. Chung; Lingling  Zhang

Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2015

Selling to a Moving Target: Dynamic Marketing Effects in US Presidential Elections

by Doug J. Chung and Lingling Zhang

Abstract

We examine the effects of various political campaign activities on voter preferences in the domain of US Presidential elections. We construct a comprehensive data set that covers the three most recent elections, with detailed records of voter preferences at the state-week level over an election period. We include various types of the most frequently utilized marketing instruments: two forms of advertising—candidate’s own and outside advertising, and two forms of personal selling—retail campaigning and field operations. Although effectiveness varies by instrument and party, among the significant effects we find that a candidate’s own advertising is more effective than outside advertising, and that campaign advertising works more favorably towards Republican candidates. In contrast, field operations are more effective for Democratic candidates, primarily through the get-out-the-vote efforts. We do not find any between-party differences in the effectiveness of outside advertising. Lastly, we also find a moderate but statistically significant carryover effect of campaign activities, indicating the presence of dynamics of marketing efforts over time.

Keywords: multi-channel marketing; Personal selling; advertising; political campaigns; dynamic panel data; instrumental variables; Marketing Communications; Political Elections; Advertising Campaigns; United States;