Publications
Publications
- July 3, 2014
- Iran Matters
Comment on the Final Round of Iranian Nuclear Talks Before the Joint Plan of Action Expires (on July 20, 2014)
Abstract
As six months of talks soon end with wide gaps likely remaining on key issues, P5+1 and Iranian diplomats will undoubtedly cite some tangible progress, then argue for a six-month extension. This will likely become a pattern, with some version of the interim deal hardening into a de facto stopping point—especially if the no-deal alternative is cast as either an attack or acquiescence with Iranian nuclear capabilities. To mitigate this very real risk of "deal drift," the United States and its allies should pre-negotiate a tough new "contingency" sanctions package and design a credible triggering mechanism. Combined with a positive campaign that makes the gains of a deal more salient, this approach could well tip the internal Iranian balance in favor of a deal.
Keywords
Citation
Sebenius, James K. "Comment on the Final Round of Iranian Nuclear Talks Before the Joint Plan of Action Expires (on July 20, 2014)." Iran Matters (July 3, 2014). (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School.)