Vulnerable Banks

Robin  Greenwood; Augustin  Landier; David  Thesmar

Article | Journal of Financial Economics | March 2015

Vulnerable Banks

by Robin Greenwood, Augustin Landier and David Thesmar

Abstract

We present a model in which fire sales propagate shocks across bank balance sheets. When a bank experiences a negative shock to its equity, a natural way to return to target leverage is to sell assets. If potential buyers are limited, then asset sales depress prices, in which case one bank's sales impact other banks with common exposures. We show how this contagion effect adds up across the banking sector, and how it can be estimated empirically using balance sheet data. We compute bank exposures to system-wide deleveraging, as well as the spillovers induced by individual banks. Applying the model to European banks, we evaluate a variety of interventions to reduce their vulnerability to fire sales during the sovereign debt crisis.

Keywords: Financial Liquidity; Financial Crisis; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Europe;

Format: Print

Find at Harvard Read Now

Citation:

Greenwood, Robin, Augustin Landier, and David Thesmar. "Vulnerable Banks." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 3 (March 2015): 471–485.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many surviving firms will need to be downsized or acquired. In normal times, this triage is supported by the court system, banks, and financial markets. The goal of this paper is to size up the coming surge of financial distress, list the challenges it presents in the current environment, and offer potential policy solutions. Overall, our analysis suggests that the two key issues will be court congestion and excess liquidation and failure of small firms.

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms.

McDonald’s reported its fifth consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales growth in early 2015. Despite McDonald’s recent poor performance, Jonathon S. Jacobson, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Boston-based Highfields Capital Management, had initiated a large position in McDonald’s stock. Jacobson and his team believed that there was enormous upside in McDonald’s stock if management successfully implemented what they perceived to be straightforward operational and financial changes. McDonald’s needed to return to its core competencies of producing quick and reliable burgers and fries. In addition, they believed that financial restructuring could unlock sizable value for investors. Jacobson and his team debated whether to more forcefully articulate their vision for the company and began drafting a letter to Andrew McKenna, McDonald’s Chairman.

Faculty & Research

Vulnerable Banks

Abstract

Citation:

About the Author

More from the Author