Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

Josh   Lerner; Paul A. Gompers

Chapter | Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 3 | 2003

Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

Abstract

This chapter seeks to understand the implications of the recent decline in venture activity for innovation. It argues that the situation may not be as grim as it initially appears. While there are many reasons for believing that on average venture capital has a powerful effect on innovation, the effect is far from uniform. During boom periods, the prevalence of over funding of particular sectors can lead to a sharp decline in the effectiveness of venture funds. While prolonged downturns may eventually lead to good companies going unfounded, many of the dire predictions today seem overstated.

Keywords: Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Business Cycles; Financial Services Industry; United States;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Lerner, Josh, and Paul A. Gompers. "Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation." In Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 3, edited by Adam B. Jaffe, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern, 1–28. MIT Press, 2003.

We examine thousands of U.S. private equity (PE) buyouts from 1980 to 2013, a period that saw huge swings in credit market tightness and GDP growth. Our results show striking, systematic differences in the real-side effects of PE buyouts, depending on buyout type and external conditions. Employment at target firms shrinks 13% over two years in buyouts of publicly listed firms but expands 13% in buyouts of privately held firms, both relative to contemporaneous outcomes at control firms. Labor productivity rises 8% at targets over two years post buyout (again, relative to controls), with large gains for both public-to-private and private-to-private buyouts. Target productivity gains are larger yet for deals executed amidst tight credit conditions. A post-buyout widening of credit spreads or slowdown in GDP growth lowers employment growth at targets and sharply curtails productivity gains in public-to-private and divisional buyouts. Average earnings per worker fall by 1.7% at target firms after buyouts, largely erasing a pre-buyout wage premium relative to controls. Wage effects are also heterogeneous. In these and other respects, the economic effects of private equity vary greatly by buyout type and with external conditions.

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Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

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