Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

Robin  Greenwood; Andrei  Shleifer

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Article | Review of Financial Studies | 2014

Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

by Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Investment Return;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)

About the Author

Robin Greenwood

George Gund Professor of Finance and Banking
Unit Head, Finance

Finance

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Working Paper | 2019

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs about firms' creditworthiness, in part by extrapolating past default rates. Investor beliefs influence firms' actual creditworthiness because firms that can refinance maturing debt on favorable terms are less likely to default in the short run—even if fundamentals do not justify investors' generosity. Our model is able to match many features of credit booms and busts, including the imperfect synchronization of credit cycles with the real economy, the negative relationship between past credit growth and the future return on risky bonds, and "calm before the storm" periods in which firm fundamentals have deteriorated but the credit market has not yet turned.

Keywords: reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit;

Citation:
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25747, April 2019. View Details

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Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2018 (Revised January 2019)

The Financial Crisis: Hank Paulson in 2008

Adi Sunderam, Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson and David Scharfstein

On the afternoon of Monday October 13, 2008, Hank Paulson Jr., the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, walked into the large conference room across the hall from his office in the Treasury Department. Joining him were Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Timothy Geithner, Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporate Sheila Bair, and the Chief Executive Officers of nine of the largest banks in the United States. This distinguished group had been brought together by the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Financial panic was pushing the U.S. and European financial systems to the brink of failure. Paulson hoped his meeting with the bank CEOs would be a turning point. U.S. financial markets were closed for Columbus Day, and Paulson was planning to announce the latest government actions to stabilize the financial system before markets reopened on Tuesday.

Keywords: bailout; regulation; Financial Crisis; History; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Decision Making; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States;

Citation:
Sunderam, Adi, Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, and David Scharfstein. "The Financial Crisis: Hank Paulson in 2008." Harvard Business School Case 219-037, October 2018. (Revised January 2019.) View Details

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Case | HBS Case Collection | October 2018 (Revised January 2019)

The Financial Crisis: Timothy Geithner and the Stress Tests

Samuel G. Hanson, Robin Greenwood, David Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam

In February and March 2009, the U.S. economy was in the midst of a terrifying financial and economic crisis. Between the beginning of 2008 and early 2009, four of the 25 largest U.S. financial institutions had failed, and nine of these 25 institutions had taken extraordinary steps to avoid failure—either receiving one-off government support, merging with another firm, or submitting to heightened regulation to qualify for future government support. Led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the government had to quickly devise policies to stabilize the financial system and the economy. The case explores the details of policies, and the decision making process that led to them, that Geithner and his team devised under immense time pressure to stabilize the system. The case features an extended discussion of Geithner’s innovative “stress test,” which would reveal the longer-term health of the country’s largest banks.

Keywords: bailout; regulation; Stress Test; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Decision Making; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States;

Citation:
Hanson, Samuel G., Robin Greenwood, David Scharfstein, and Adi Sunderam. "The Financial Crisis: Timothy Geithner and the Stress Tests." Harvard Business School Case 219-038, October 2018. (Revised January 2019.) View Details

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Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

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