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Publications
Publications
  • March 2011
  • Article
  • Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman
  • Format:Print
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Abstract

This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was close to the consensus, the out-of-consensus analyst adjusts her forecasts for the current fiscal year's earnings less in the direction of the quarterly earnings surprise. On average, this type of updating behavior reduces forecasting accuracy, so it does not seem to reflect superior private information. Further empirical results suggest that analysts do not have financial incentives to stand by extreme stock calls in the face of contradictory evidence. Managerial and financial market implications are discussed.

Keywords

Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

Citation

Beshears, John, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 77, no. 3 (March 2011): 304–317.
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About The Author

John Beshears

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
→More Publications

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  • A Randomized Trial of Behavioral Nudges Delivered through Text Messages to Increase Influenza Vaccination among Patients with an Upcoming Primary Care Visit By: Mitesh S. Patel, Katherine L. Milkman, Linnea Gandhi, Heather N. Graci, Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Jake Rothschild, Modupe Akinola, John Beshears, Jonathan E. Bogard, Alison Buttenheim, Christopher Chabris, Gretchen B. Chapman, James J. Choi, Hengchen Dai, Craig R. Fox, Amir Goren, Matthew D. Hilchey, Jillian Hmurovic, Leslie John, Dean Karlan, Melanie Kim, David Laibson, Cait Lamberton, Brigitte C. Madrian, Michelle N. Meyer, Maria Modanu, Jimin Nam, Todd Rogers, Renante Rondina, Silvia Saccardo, Maheen Shermohammed, Dilip Soman, Jehan Sparks, Caleb Warren, Megan Weber, Ron Berman, Chalanda N. Evans, Seung Hyeong Lee, Christopher K. Snider, Eli Tsukayama, Christophe Van den Bulte, Kevin G. Volpp and Angela L. Duckworth
  • Automating Short-Term Payroll Savings: Initial Evidence from a Large U.K. Experiment By: Sarah Holmes Berk, John Beshears, James J. Choi and David Laibson
  • How to Choose a Default By: John Beshears, Richard T. Mason and Shlomo Benartzi
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