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Publications
  • 2013
  • Article
  • American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:5
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Abstract

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over 10 periods ("fast"), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ("slow"). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.

Keywords

Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking

Citation

Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
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About The Author

John Beshears

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
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More from the Authors
  • Optimal Illiquidity By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
  • Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate By: John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and James J. Choi
  • Smaller than We Thought? The Effect of Automatic Savings Policies By: James J. Choi, David Laibson, Jordan Cammarota, Richard Lombardo and John Beshears
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