What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

John  Beshears; James J. Choi; Andreas  Fuster; David  Laibson; Brigitte C. Madrian

Article | American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings | 2013

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

by John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

Abstract

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over 10 periods ("fast"), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ("slow"). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.

In 2016, members of the U.S. Women's National Soccer Team (WNT) took steps to fight for equal pay relative to the U.S. Men's National Soccer Team. Their legal representative declared that the memorandum of understanding governing the relationship between the players and the U.S. Soccer Federation (USSF) was terminable at will. If a court agreed with this position, the players could threaten to strike in advance of the upcoming Olympics. In addition, five of the top WNT players filed a wage-discrimination complaint against the USSF with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. This case describes the history of the WNT and the USSF leading up to these events.

In 2016, members of the U.S. Women's National Soccer Team (WNT) took steps to fight for equal pay relative to the U.S. Men's National Soccer Team. Their legal representative declared that the memorandum of understanding governing the relationship between the players and the U.S. Soccer Federation (USSF) was terminable at will. If a court agreed with this position, the players could threaten to strike in advance of the upcoming Olympics. In addition, five of the top WNT players filed a wage-discrimination complaint against the USSF with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. This case describes the events following from the actions of the WNT players.

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What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

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