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• Case | HBS Case Collection | January 2019 (Revised November 2019)

  Ajeej Capital: Investing in Emerging Markets

  Luis M. Viceira and Eren Kuzucu

  In October 2007, Tarek Sakka and Fouad Dajani launched Ajeej Capital, the first independent investment advisory in the MENA region. Fittingly named ajeej, an Arabic word that translates to “growth and propagation in a chaotic setting,” the firm’s AUM grew from $20 million to $1 billion before its 10th anniversary despite a deep-cutting global financial crisis, market turmoil driven by the Arab Spring, and years of weak oil prices. Leveraging deep local knowledge, strong relations in the region, and a “PE investment approach in public equity markets,” Ajeej had outperformed its benchmark regional stock indices and attracted investing capital from large institutional investors around the world.
  
  The case follows the investment methodology of Ajeej Capital’s investment fund, the Ajeej MENA Fund, through the turmoil of Ajeej’s first decade. The case then focuses in on September 2016, with Sakka and Dajani facing a historic hurdle: Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, had just announced their first ever public-sector pay cuts, triggered by the Vision 2030 agenda. Ajeej, with 50% of its portfolio invested in Saudi companies, had to decide how to position its investment portfolio to successfully navigate a period of structural change in the region.

  Keywords: Security Selection; Investments; Growth; culture; UAE; Finance; Asset Management; Emerging Markets; Capital Markets; Investment; Growth Management; Risk Management; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; Dubai; United Arab Emirates; Egypt; North Africa;

  Citation:

  Viceira, Luis M., and Eren Kuzucu. "Ajeej Capital: Investing in Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Case 219-029, January 2019. (Revised November 2019.)  View Details

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• Working Paper | 2019

  A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premiums and Exchange Rates

  Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

  We develop a model in which risk-averse, specialized bond investors must be paid to absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, our model naturally links the predictability of long-term bond returns to the predictability of foreign exchange returns. Specifically, a shift in the net supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences bond term premiums in both currencies as well as the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the co-movement between exchange rates and bond term premiums as well as the finding that central banks' quantitative easing policies impact not only local-currency long-term yields, but also foreign exchange rates. We also show that this quantity-driven approach provides a unified account explaining both why foreign exchange tends to outperform when the foreign interest rates exceed domestic rates and why long-term bonds tend to outperform when the yield curve is steep.

  Citation:

  Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premiums and Exchange Rates." Working Paper, November 2019.  View Details

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• Case | HBS Case Collection | August 2019 (Revised October 2019)

  Paradigm Capital Value Fund

  Luis M. Viceira and Elena Corsi

  Karl Jan Erick Hummel had founded Paradigm Capital Value Fund in 2007 together with Columbia Business School Professor Bruce Greenwald, an expert in value investing and now chairman of the fund. The fund followed the principles of value investing to their target universe: publicly traded companies with market capitalization between €100 million and €4.5 billion based in Germany, the Nordic countries, the UK, and Ireland. Hummel and Greenwald believed they had developed an investing edge in that universe, ignored by large U.S.- and UK-based funds, through deep research and by locating their headquarters close to companies and their management. Hummel and his team of six analysts were based in a small suburb of Munich, Germany. Paradigm Capital Value Fund was highly concentrated, with 60% of its assets invested in four stocks, and held its positions for long periods of time. Hummel had to decide if it was time to divest from one of their main investments, a German manufacturer of rollover car washing systems, and instead invest in a German truck equipment supplier. At the same time, Hummel was concerned by how to grow the fund.

  Keywords: Investment Activism; Investment Portfolio; Financial Management; Growth and Development Strategy;

  Citation:

  Viceira, Luis M., and Elena Corsi. "Paradigm Capital Value Fund." Harvard Business School Case 220-014, August 2019. (Revised October 2019.)  View Details

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