Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

Ozge  Turut; Elie  Ofek

Article | Journal of Economics & Management Strategy | Fall 2012

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

by Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek

Abstract

We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly attractive to the rival entrant: if the market for it pans out, such an innovation obsoletes the existing technology and any incremental improvements to it. Each firm has its own assessment of the market potential for the radical innovation, and the reliability of these market forecasts can differ. We show that when the entrant's market-assessment capability is weak, the incumbent will pursue incremental innovation and postpone its plans to develop radical innovation even when it thinks highly of the market potential for the radical innovation. The incumbent does so to avoid validating the high market potential to the entrant, who may otherwise be encouraged to invest aggressively. The incumbent thus prefers to look 'soft' with respect to its innovation strategy in order to discourage entry. Even if its innovation strategy is not observable, we show that an incumbent that assesses the commercial potential for a radical innovation favorably may pursue an incremental path and communicate its plans publicly; this strategy serves to reduce entry by affecting the entrant's beliefs about the market potential of the innovation. Finally, we extend the model to investigate the entrant's decision to communicate its innovation intentions. We find that the entrant communicates its plans to aggressively pursue radical innovation only if the incumbent's market-assessment capabilities are strong. In doing so, the entrant acts preemptively to discourage the incumbent from pursuing the radical innovation and is less concerned with validating market potential.

Keywords: Competition; Innovation Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Mathematical Methods;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Turut, Ozge, and Elie Ofek. "Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 12, no. 3 (Fall 2012).

In 2019, Chinese smartphone maker and telecommunications empire Huawei was preparing to launch its new flagship smartphone series, the Mate 30. After years of explosive growth, the previous 18 months had been a challenge for the company. In early 2018, Huawei’s planned smartphone launch in the U.S. had failed due to pressure from regulators who cited concerns about the company facilitating Chinese spying. Over the following months, a trade war between the U.S. and China had broken out, with Huawei at its epicenter. By mid-2019, after months of U.S. pressure and restrictions, Huawei found its supply chain for computer parts and software under siege and several governments around the world threatened to ban its 5G network equipment from their countries. In this unpredictable climate, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei and his management team had to figure out not only how to successfully launch Mate 30 phones in the upcoming fall, but also how to ensure the company’s long-term viability.

Case | HBS Case Collection | August 2019

Lemonade: Disrupting Insurance with Instant Everything, Killer Prices, and a Big Heart

Elie Ofek and Danielle Golan

Launching its first products in the fall of 2016 in New York, insurtech startup Lemonade was on a mission to disrupt the insurance market by using AI and behavioral economics principles. The company offered renters, homeowners, and condo insurance and mainly targeted millennial, tech-savvy individuals with relatively few assets—customers who were less attractive to traditional insurers who had costly, labor-intensive operations. By offering a delightful, bot-driven consumer experience, embracing a model that removed any incentive to deny claims and that let customers pick causes to donate leftover money, building a loveable brand, and employing creative digital advertising—the company was able to grow at an impressive pace. By the end of 2018, Lemonade was active in 24 U.S. states, had insured 425,000 customers, and was expecting sales (gross premiums) of over $57 million.
In an effort to sustain the spectacular growth momentum, the co-founders sought to pursue ambitious plans in 2019, including the launch of new insurance product lines as well as international expansion. But limited resources and scarce management bandwidth suggested that taking on both moves simultaneously could be highly risky. In deciding which path to take, the leadership team had to consider whether it was more important at this stage to scale globally with the current product lineup or to cover a breadth of insurance categories and stay in the U.S. for now. Assessing the relevance of the business model and the role of AI for each of these moves, understanding the nature of consumers in different markets, and foreseeing competitive pressures from both incumbents and startups were key in making the right call.

Keywords: Business Startups; Insurance; Technological Innovation; Business Model; Disruption; Brands and Branding; Growth and Development Strategy; Global Strategy; Decision Making; Insurance Industry; Technology Industry;

Citation:

Ofek, Elie, and Danielle Golan. "Lemonade: Disrupting Insurance with Instant Everything, Killer Prices, and a Big Heart." Harvard Business School Case 520-020, August 2019. View Details

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