Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

Tom  Nicholas; Anna  Scherbina

Article | Real Estate Economics | Summer 2013

Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

by Tom Nicholas and Anna Scherbina

Abstract

Using new data on market-based transactions we construct real estate price indexes for Manhattan between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67% at the end of 1932 and hovering around that value for most of the Great Depression. The value of high-end properties strongly co-moved with the stock market between 1929 and 1932. A typical property bought in 1920 would have retained only 56% of its initial value in nominal terms two decades later. An investment in the stock market index (including dividends) would have outperformed an investment in a typical property (including net rental income), by a factor of 5.2 over our time period.

Keywords: Property; Market Transactions; Price; Value; Financial Crisis; Investment; Real Estate Industry; New York (state, US);

Format: Print

Find at Harvard Read Now

Citation:

Nicholas, Tom, and Anna Scherbina. "Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression." Real Estate Economics 41, no. 2 (Summer 2013): 278–309.

In 1929, Chicago, IL mob boss Al Capone was at the height of his power. As head of the extensive crime organization known as "The Outfit" during most of U.S.'s Prohibition Era (1920-1933), Capone oversaw hundreds of brothels, speakeasies, and roadhouses which served as venues for gang-administered gambling, prostitution, and illegal alcohol sales. At their peak, yearly revenues from all of his enterprises combined totaled over $100 million. Capone's ability to operate these establishments with impunity stemmed from a combination of his political ties and a profound fear of reprisal. Capone's ascension had come at the tremendous loss of human life. Turf wars between Chicago gangs had caused roughly 700 gang-related deaths from 1920 to 1930. By some estimates, Capone had been directly or indirectly responsible for over 200 murders, the most notorious of which was the St. Valentine's Day Massacre in February 1929, a shootout that had killed seven men from a rival gang. The brutality, efficiency, and wealth of Capone's organization demonstrated the destructive forms of American entrepreneurship in the early 20th century.

Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in R&D and human capital, while mass production and scientific management techniques were extensively adopted. Narrates the history of the 1920s and 1930s through the life of Irving Fisher, a prominent academic, investor, technologist, and market commentator who claimed that innovation was driving equity prices higher. Analyzes why Fisher believed that the high level of the stock market was justified, and his explanations for why the stock market crashed. Further explores the 1930s, marked by mass unemployment and social distress on the one hand, and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. Fisher's views provide a conduit for examining the dynamics of stock market behavior and economic performance during one of the most significant periods in U.S. economic and financial history.

Faculty & Research

Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

Abstract

Citation:

About the Author

More from the Author