Adding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time

Jill  Avery; Thomas J. Steenburgh; John  Deighton; Mary  Caravella

Article | Journal of Marketing | May 2012

Adding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time

by Jill Avery, Thomas J. Steenburgh, John Deighton and Mary Caravella

Abstract

The authors propose a conceptual framework to explain whether and when the introduction of a new retail store channel helps or hurts sales in existing direct channels. A conceptual framework separates short- and long-term effects by analyzing the capabilities of a channel that help consumers accomplish their shopping goals. To test the theory, the authors analyze a unique data set from a high-end retailer using matching methods. The authors study the introduction of a retail store and find evidence of cross-channel cannibalization and synergy. The presence of a retail store decreases sales in the catalog but not the Internet channel in the short run but increases sales in both direct channels over time. Following the opening of the store, more first-time customers begin purchasing in the direct channels. These results suggest that adding a retail store to direct channels yields different results from adding an Internet channel to a retail store channel, as previous research has indicated.

Keywords: marketing; channels; channels of distribution; Distribution; e-commerce; retailing; channel management; channel migration; multichannel retailing; Framework; Customers; Marketing Channels; Sales; Internet; Demand and Consumers; Competency and Skills; Distribution Channels; Retail Industry; United States;

Format: Print

SSRN Find at Harvard

Citation:

Avery, Jill, Thomas J. Steenburgh, John Deighton, and Mary Caravella. "Adding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time." Journal of Marketing 76, no. 3 (May 2012): 96–111.

Shiseido was in the midst of a six year corporate turnaround, trying to reverse the effects of decades of under-investment in R&D and marketing which had led to a cycle of declining customer support and brand value. Would the CEO’s VISION 2020 plan, centered on four strategies: 1.) increasing R&D spending from 1.8% to 3% of sales, 2.) investing an incremental ¥120 billion in brand-building marketing, 3.) moving to a “think global-act local” matrixed brand management structure, and 4.) rethinking brand portfolio strategy, be enough to achieve aggressive 8% per year sales goals while simultaneously increasing the company’s operating margin from 8% to 10% in the highly competitive and slow growing beauty industry?

Away, a direct-to-consumer, digital native e-commerce seller of travel luggage, is debating how to invest its latest round of venture funding. How quickly could and should Away scale and what were the most promising growth trajectories to maximize its potential? Three decisions face the founders. Should Away continue to invest in driving growth in suitcases and other travel bags or was it time to begin to expand into other adjacent travel categories? How should they use the results of the company’s first customer segmentation study to select target segments and quantify their growth aspirations? What were the right distribution strategies moving forward following a series of pilots that included company-owned stores, temporary airport kiosks, and pop-up experiences with retailer partners?

We develop a model in which risk-averse, specialized bond investors must be paid to absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, our model naturally links the predictability of long-term bond returns to the predictability of foreign exchange returns. Specifically, a shift in the net supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences bond term premiums in both currencies as well as the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the co-movement between exchange rates and bond term premiums as well as the finding that central banks' quantitative easing policies impact not only local-currency long-term yields, but also foreign exchange rates. We also show that this quantity-driven approach provides a unified account explaining both why foreign exchange tends to outperform when the foreign interest rates exceed domestic rates and why long-term bonds tend to outperform when the yield curve is steep.

Faculty & Research

Adding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time

Abstract

Citation:

About the Authors

More from these Authors