Decoding Inside Information

Lauren  Cohen; Christopher  Malloy; Lukasz  Pomorski

Article | Journal of Finance | June 2012

Decoding Inside Information

by Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski

Abstract

Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trading. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms. Stripping away the trades of routine insiders leaves a set of information-rich trades by "opportunistic" insiders that contain all the predictive power in the insider trading universe. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on opportunistic traders yields value-weighted abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month, while the abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero. Further, opportunistic insiders predict future firm-specific news, as well as announcement returns around future analyst forecasts, management forecasts, and earnings announcements, while routine traders do not. The most informed opportunistic traders are local non-senior insiders, who come from geographically concentrated, poorly governed firms. Lastly, opportunistic traders are significantly more likely to have SEC enforcement action taken against them and reduce their trading following waves of SEC insider trading enforcement.

Keywords: Strategy; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Law Enforcement; Opportunities; Geographic Location; Business Earnings;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." Journal of Finance 67, no. 3 (June 2012): 1009–1043. (Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research.)

Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2018

Chaudhary Group: Rebuilding Nepal

Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen, Inakshi Sobti, Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen and Inakshi Sobti

After the 2015 Nepal earthquake, the Chaudhary Group, a billion-dollar conglomerate in Nepal decides to play a pivotal role in re-building the country. The Group's philanthropic arm (Chaudhary Foundation) works with stakeholders and develops a blue print for short- and long-term relief measures. The management needs to address several questions as they navigate the foundation's course. What element of relief work should the foundation focus on? Should they go beyond addressing the immediate need for shelters and adopt a more holistic development plan? How should they acquire technical expertise and organize themselves to successfully execute this effort? The case focuses on how businesses can drive entrepreneurship and disaster management efforts and be agents for social change in the emerging markets grappling with institutional voids. How should they work with the government in this endeavor? How do they ensure an alignment of these efforts to the group and foundation's long-term focus areas and objectives?

Keywords: Leadership; Family Business; Decision Choices and Conditions; Developing Countries and Economies; Social Entrepreneurship; Values and Beliefs; Venture Capital; Microfinance; Geographic Location; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Management; Crisis Management; Management Teams; Resource Allocation; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Natural Disasters; Social and Collaborative Networks; Social Issues; Business Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; Banking Industry; Auto Industry; Real Estate Industry; Travel Industry; Nepal;

Citation:

Malloy, Christopher J., Lauren H. Cohen, and Inakshi Sobti. "Chaudhary Group: Rebuilding Nepal." Harvard Business School Case 218-100, March 2018. View Details

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This B case is a supplement to the Chaudhary Group: Rebuilding Nepal case. Having successfully spearheaded relief work in the aftermath of the Nepal earthquake the Chaudhary Foundation envisions creating a more comprehensive and sustainable development model. They are keen to build a model village that integrates components of shelter, education, skill development and livelihood creation and affords residents a basic standard of living. What should the blueprint of this sustainable ecosystem include? Who are the stakeholders they should collaborate with on this effort? Can this model be replicated at scale across the country?

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Decoding Inside Information

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