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Publications
  • May 2012
  • Article
  • Journal of Financial Economics

Complicated Firms

By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou
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Abstract

We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into prices. We document substantial return predictability from the set of easy-to-analyze firms to their more complicated peers. Specifically, a simple portfolio strategy that takes advantage of this straightforward vs. complicated information processing classification yields returns of 118 basis points per month. Consistent with processing complexity driving the return relation, we further show that the more complicated the firm, the more pronounced the return predictability. In addition, we find that sell-side analysts are subject to these same information processing constraints, as their forecast revisions of easy-to-analyze firms predict their future revisions of more complicated firms.

Keywords

Investment Portfolio; Information; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Complexity; Mathematical Methods

Citation

Cohen, Lauren, and Dong Lou. "Complicated Firms." Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 2 (May 2012). (Winner of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Anniversary Best Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Istanbul Stock Exchange. Winner of Center for Research in Security Prices Forum. Best Paper Prize presented by University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Winner of Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Academic Grant presented by Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Winner of Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing presented by PanAgora Asset Management, Inc.)
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About The Author

Lauren H. Cohen

Finance
→More Publications

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More from the Authors
  • 'Net Zero in Action': Impact Investing at the McKnight Foundation By: Lauren Cohen, Christina R. Wing and Sophia Pan
  • The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman By: Lauren Cohen and Sophia Pan
  • Techint: Strategic Choices for Community Impact By: Lauren Cohen, Virak Prum, Kenneth Charman, Pedro Levindo and Mariana Cal
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