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• Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2005 (Revised October 2019)

  The U.S. Current Account Deficit

  Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

  Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications of the deficit were debated with intensity. At one extreme, it was argued that large deficits would eventually resolve themselves smoothly, even if they persisted for many more years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was among those expecting a "benign resolution to the U.S. current account imbalance." Other analysts, such as economists at the World Bank, believed the large deficits raised the risk of a sharp and disorderly fall of the dollar and that necessary macroeconomic adjustment could be painful, for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. The Financial Times asked: "How long will foreigners be prepared to make such generous 'gifts' to the US?" In this environment, Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, postulated that current account imbalances would lead to "some chaotic markets in which currency adjustments play a part" and announced to shareholders a plan to increase investment in overseas companies to protect against this risk. It remained to be seen what the short- and long-term implications of the current account deficit would ultimately yield.

  Keywords: Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States;

  Citation:

  Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson, and Jonathan Schlefer. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit." Harvard Business School Case 706-002, July 2005. (Revised October 2019.)  View Details

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• Teaching Note | HBS Case Collection | September 2018 (Revised October 2019)

  Hank and Nancy: The Subprime Crisis, the Run on Lehman and the Shadow Banks, and the Decision to Bailout Wall Street

  Rafael Di Tella and Alberto Cavallo

  Teaching Note for HBS No. 718-022.

  Citation:

  Di Tella, Rafael, and Alberto Cavallo. "Hank and Nancy: The Subprime Crisis, the Run on Lehman and the Shadow Banks, and the Decision to Bailout Wall Street." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 719-010, September 2018. (Revised October 2019.)  View Details

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• Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019

  Persuasion by Populist Propaganda: Evidence from the 2015 Argentine Ballotage

  Rafael Di Tella, Sebastian Galiani and Ernesto Schargrodsky

  We study a propaganda campaign sponsored by the government against the main political challenger in the days preceding the 2015 Argentine presidential ballotage. Subjects in the treatment group watched an “ad” initially aired during soccer transmissions that was part of this campaign and were then asked about their political views. Relative to subjects in the control group, their declared preference for the challenger drops by 6.5 percentage points. We find no effects of the three types of defenses employed by the challenger (a positive message unrelated to the “ad”, an answer to the accusations in the “ad”, and a counter-attack). The propaganda effect is driven by women.

  Keywords: propaganda; persuasion; Voting; Political Elections; Government and Politics; Communication Strategy; Power and Influence; Public Opinion; Argentina;

  Citation:

  Di Tella, Rafael, Sebastian Galiani, and Ernesto Schargrodsky. "Persuasion by Populist Propaganda: Evidence from the 2015 Argentine Ballotage." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-030, September 2019.  View Details

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