Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

D. A. Moore; T. R. Kurtzberg; C. R. Fox; M. H. Bazerman

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Article | Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes | August 1999

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

by D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction;

Format: Print

20 pages

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Citation:

Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.

About the Author

Max H. Bazerman

Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets

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Article | MIT Sloan Management Review | Summer 2020

Want to Make Better Decisions? Start Experimenting

Michael Luca and Max Bazerman

Citation:
Luca, Michael, and Max Bazerman. "Want to Make Better Decisions? Start Experimenting." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020). View Details

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Article | Harvard Business Review Digital Articles | April 29, 2020

How Should We Allocate Scarce Medical Resources?

Max Bazerman, Regan Bernhard, Joshua D. Greene, Karen Huang and Netta Barak-Corren

Who should get a ventilator if there aren’t enough to go around? Research on decision making leads to three concrete guidelines that policy-makers and physicians can use to make fair choices when allocating scarce, life-saving resources. The key to making fair and ethical choices is to assure that decisions are made through an impartial process.

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Resource Allocation; Decision Making; Policy; Fairness; Ethics;

Citation:
Bazerman, Max, Regan Bernhard, Joshua D. Greene, Karen Huang, and Netta Barak-Corren. "How Should We Allocate Scarce Medical Resources?" Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 29, 2020). View Details

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Article | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Signing at the Beginning vs at the End Does Not Decrease Dishonesty

Ariella Kristal, A.V. Whillans, Max Bazerman, Francesca Gino, Lisa Shu, Nina Mazar and Dan Ariely

Honest reporting is essential for society to function well. However, people frequently lie when asked to provide information, such as misrepresenting their income to save money on taxes. A landmark finding published in PNAS (Shu, Mazar, Gino, Ariely, and Bazerman, 2012, “Signing at the Beginning Makes Ethics Salient and Decreases Dishonest Self-reports in Comparison to Signing at the End”) provided evidence for a simple way of encouraging honest reporting: asking people to sign a veracity statement at the beginning instead of at the end of a self-report form. Since this finding was published, various government agencies have adopted this practice. However, in this project, we failed to replicate this result. Across five conceptual replications (N = 4,559) and one highly powered, pre-registered, direct replication (N = 1,235) conducted with the authors of the original paper, we observed no effect of signing first on honest reporting. Given the policy applications of this result, it is important to update the scientific record regarding the veracity of these results.

Keywords: Morality; nudge; policy-making; replication; honesty; Moral Sensibility; Behavior; Policy;

Citation:
Kristal, Ariella, A.V. Whillans, Max Bazerman, Francesca Gino, Lisa Shu, Nina Mazar, and Dan Ariely. "Signing at the Beginning vs at the End Does Not Decrease Dishonesty." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117, no. 13 (March 31, 2020). View Details

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Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

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