Chronology of the Asian Financial Crisis

Laura  Alfaro; Rafael   Di Tella; Renee  Kim

Case | HBS Case Collection | February 2008 (Revised April 2009)

Chronology of the Asian Financial Crisis

by Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella and Renee Kim

Abstract

In July 1997, Thailand became the first Asian "tiger" economy to abandon its fixed exchange rate system in response to speculative attacks on its currency. Investors started to flee Asia, and the crisis rapidly spread to other countries. Central banks spent billions of dollars to try and defend their currencies, only to seek emergency bailouts from the International Monetary Fund. This case presents a chronology of events that unraveled during the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to the end of 1998.

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Currency Exchange Rate; Central Banking; Policy; Crisis Management; Asia; Thailand;

Format: Print

15 pages

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Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, and Renee Kim. "Chronology of the Asian Financial Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 708-001, February 2008. (Revised April 2009.)

In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own currency. As opposed to traditional sovereign-debt models, asset-valuation effects occasioned by currency fluctuations act to absorb global shocks and render consumption smoother. Countries do not accumulate reserves to be depleted in “bad” times. Instead, issuing domestic debt while accumulating reserves acts as a hedge against external shocks. A quantitative exercise of the Brazilian economy suggests this strategy to be effective for smoothing consumption and reducing the occurrence of default.

The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between leverage, firm fragility, and exchange rate movements in emerging markets. While the relationship between firm leverage and distress scores varies over time, the relationship between firm size and corporate vulnerability is relatively time invariant. All else being equal, large firms in emerging markets are more financially vulnerable and also systemically important. Consistent with the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations in Gabaix (2011), idiosyncratic shocks to the sales growth of large firms are positively and significantly correlated with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Relatedly, the negative impact of exchange rate shocks has a more acute impact on the sales growth of the more highly levered large firms.

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Chronology of the Asian Financial Crisis

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