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  • December 2007 (Revised January 2008)
  • Background Note
  • HBS Case Collection

Evaluating M&A Deals-Announcement Effects, Risk Arbitrage and Event Risk

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:8
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Abstract

The announcement of merger or acquisition conveys new information to the capital markets. This note describes how the stock prices of a Buyer and Target behave after the announcement of a deal. First, for an all-stock deal that is certain to go through, the note defines accouchement effects and describes the fundamental arbitrage relationship between Target and Buyer stock prices. It shows how post-announcement prices may be used to infer the market's estimate of synergies. It then explains how the betas of the two companies change post-announcement and the arbitrage relationship between prices in a cash-and-stock deal. Finally, it defines event risk and explains how it affects the prices of the Buyer and the Target.

Keywords

Mergers and Acquisitions; Announcements; Capital Markets; Stocks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty

Citation

Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Evaluating M&A Deals-Announcement Effects, Risk Arbitrage and Event Risk." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-103, December 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
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About The Author

Carliss Y. Baldwin

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More from the Author
  • Computer-Implemented Methods and Systems for Measuring, Estimating, and Managing Economic Outcomes and Technical Debt in Software Systems and Projects: US Patent 11,126,427 B2 By: Daniel J. Sturtevant, Carliss Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Sunny Ahn and Sean Gilliland
  • Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 7 The Value Structure of Technologies, Part 2: Strategy without Numbers By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
  • Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 6 The Value Structure of Technologies, Part 1: Mapping Functional Relationships By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
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