All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from unforeseen events, from complex combinations of apparently routine events, and from apparently familiar events occurring at unprecedented scale and speed. Mobilizing routine risk management to novel events will be ineffective, and, more seriously, delude management into thinking that risks have been mitigated when they may already have escalated to serious consequences. Based on best practices from the private and public sector, the paper describes structures and processes to identify and respond to novel risks. A critical incident management team makes assessments and develops options in the event’s uncertain and volatile environment. The team’s decision-making process has to be rapid, improvisational, iterative, and humble since not every action taken will work as intended.
Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Citation:
Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "Novel Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-094, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.) View Details