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Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2005 (Revised October 2019)

The U.S. Current Account Deficit

by Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

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Abstract

Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications of the deficit were debated with intensity. At one extreme, it was argued that large deficits would eventually resolve themselves smoothly, even if they persisted for many more years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was among those expecting a "benign resolution to the U.S. current account imbalance." Other analysts, such as economists at the World Bank, believed the large deficits raised the risk of a sharp and disorderly fall of the dollar and that necessary macroeconomic adjustment could be painful, for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. The Financial Times asked: "How long will foreigners be prepared to make such generous 'gifts' to the US?" In this environment, Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, postulated that current account imbalances would lead to "some chaotic markets in which currency adjustments play a part" and announced to shareholders a plan to increase investment in overseas companies to protect against this risk. It remained to be seen what the short- and long-term implications of the current account deficit would ultimately yield.

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States;

Language: English Format: Print 38 pages EducatorsPurchase

Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson, and Jonathan Schlefer. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit." Harvard Business School Case 706-002, July 2005. (Revised October 2019.)

Related Work

  1. Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2005 (Revised October 2019)

    The U.S. Current Account Deficit

    Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

    Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications of the deficit were debated with intensity. At one extreme, it was argued that large deficits would eventually resolve themselves smoothly, even if they persisted for many more years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was among those expecting a "benign resolution to the U.S. current account imbalance." Other analysts, such as economists at the World Bank, believed the large deficits raised the risk of a sharp and disorderly fall of the dollar and that necessary macroeconomic adjustment could be painful, for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. The Financial Times asked: "How long will foreigners be prepared to make such generous 'gifts' to the US?" In this environment, Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, postulated that current account imbalances would lead to "some chaotic markets in which currency adjustments play a part" and announced to shareholders a plan to increase investment in overseas companies to protect against this risk. It remained to be seen what the short- and long-term implications of the current account deficit would ultimately yield.

    Keywords: Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States;

    Citation:

    Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson, and Jonathan Schlefer. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit." Harvard Business School Case 706-002, July 2005. (Revised October 2019.)  View Details
    CiteView DetailsEducatorsPurchase Related

About the Authors

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Laura Alfaro
Warren Alpert Professor of Business Administration
General Management

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Rafael M. Di Tella
William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration
Business, Government and the International Economy

View Profile »
View Publications »

 

More from these Authors

  • Teaching Note | HBS Case Collection | May 2006 (Revised November 2019)

    To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

    Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel

    Keywords: China;

    Citation:

    Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 706-060, May 2006. (Revised November 2019.)  View Details
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  • Teaching Note | HBS Case Collection | May 2006 (Revised November 2019)

    To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

    Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel

    Keywords: China;

    Citation:

    Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 706-060, May 2006. (Revised November 2019.)  View Details
    CiteView DetailsPurchase Related
  • Teaching Note | HBS Case Collection | May 2006 (Revised November 2019)

    To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

    Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel

    Keywords: China;

    Citation:

    Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 706-060, May 2006. (Revised November 2019.)  View Details
    CiteView DetailsPurchase Related
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