Economic Links and Predictable Returns

Lauren  Cohen; Andrea  Frazzini

Article | Journal of Finance | August 2008

Economic Links and Predictable Returns

by Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini

Abstract

This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating this return predictability across assets. We use a dataset of firms' principal customers to identify a set of economically related firms, and show that stock prices do not incorporate news involving related firms, generating predictable subsequent price moves. A long/short equity strategy based on this effect yields monthly alphas of over 150 basis points, or over 18 percent per year.

Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Data and Data Sets; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction;

Format: Print

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Citation:

Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)

Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2018

Chaudhary Group: Rebuilding Nepal

Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen and Inakshi Sobti

After the 2015 Nepal earthquake, the Chaudhary Group, a billion-dollar conglomerate in Nepal decides to play a pivotal role in re-building the country. The Group's philanthropic arm (Chaudhary Foundation) works with stakeholders and develops a blue print for short- and long-term relief measures. The management needs to address several questions as they navigate the foundation's course. What element of relief work should the foundation focus on? Should they go beyond addressing the immediate need for shelters and adopt a more holistic development plan? How should they acquire technical expertise and organize themselves to successfully execute this effort? The case focuses on how businesses can drive entrepreneurship and disaster management efforts and be agents for social change in the emerging markets grappling with institutional voids. How should they work with the government in this endeavor? How do they ensure an alignment of these efforts to the group and foundation's long-term focus areas and objectives?

Keywords: Leadership; Family Business; Decision Choices and Conditions; Developing Countries and Economies; Social Entrepreneurship; Values and Beliefs; Venture Capital; Microfinance; Geographic Location; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Management; Crisis Management; Management Teams; Resource Allocation; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Natural Disasters; Social and Collaborative Networks; Social Issues; Business Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; Banking Industry; Auto Industry; Real Estate Industry; Travel Industry; Nepal;

Citation:

Malloy, Christopher J., Lauren H. Cohen, and Inakshi Sobti. "Chaudhary Group: Rebuilding Nepal." Harvard Business School Case 218-100, March 2018. View Details

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This B case is a supplement to the Chaudhary Group: Rebuilding Nepal case. Having successfully spearheaded relief work in the aftermath of the Nepal earthquake the Chaudhary Foundation envisions creating a more comprehensive and sustainable development model. They are keen to build a model village that integrates components of shelter, education, skill development and livelihood creation and affords residents a basic standard of living. What should the blueprint of this sustainable ecosystem include? Who are the stakeholders they should collaborate with on this effort? Can this model be replicated at scale across the country?

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Economic Links and Predictable Returns

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