Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

Lauren  Cohen; Karl B. Diether; Christopher J. Malloy

Article | Journal of Finance | October 2007

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

by Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Abstract

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find that shorting demand is an important predictor of future stock returns: An increase in shorting demand leads to negative abnormal returns of 2.98% in the following month. Second, we show that our results are stronger in environments with less public information flow, suggesting that the shorting market is an important mechanism for private information revelation.

Keywords: Data and Data Sets; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information;

Format: Print

36 pages

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Citation:

Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market." Journal of Finance 62, no. 5 (October 2007): 2061–2096. (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2007.)

Tianqiao Chen, founder and CEO of Shanda Group, has set up his family office in the U.S. in 2016 after exiting from Shanda's Internet games business in China in 2014, again pioneering an unconventional approach to the management of a family office.

Case | HBS Case Collection | September 2017 (Revised June 2019)

Dianrong: Marketplace Lending, Blockchain, and 'The New Finance' in China

Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen, Anthony K. Woo, Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen and Anthony K. Woo

This case examines the strategic positioning of Dianrong, one of the largest online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms in China, in its attempt to become a foundational player in the expansion of the FinTech sector in Asia. Dianrong had recently announced the acquisition of the asset-origination operations of Shanghai-based Quark Finance, augmenting Dianrong’s asset management and credit evaluation capabilities across China, as well as a new initiative to develop the first blockchain platform for supply chain finance in China. The goal was to provide capital to smaller suppliers in the supply chain, and provide enhanced visibility and transparency of supply chains for large multinational manufacturers. The company had also made several recent forays into other related sectors, with their creation of “DR Group” as an umbrella corporate structure that included all wholly-owned businesses, joint ventures, and partnerships. This rebranded group structure encompassed the various aspects of “The New Finance,” leveraging FinTech innovation to deliver value for borrowers, lenders, and investors. Case protagonist Soul Htite, Founder and CEO of Dianrong, and the former CTO of Lending Club, must decide how to execute on the firm’s aggressive diversification plan. Recent advances at the company, while promising, were complicated by the uncertainties in the political and regulatory landscape. How should the company leverage its advantage in technology and position itself in the market? Which sectors within its larger umbrella structure were the most promising avenues to focus on? Was Dianrong tackling too many sectors and problems at once? Htite’s view was that in order to truly succeed in China a technology company had to “create” much of the ecosystem and infrastructure oneself, as opposed to in the US where companies could simply “provide add-ons” to existing firms and capabilities. But the reality of trying to excel in so many different areas was daunting.

Keywords: Financing and Loans; Online Technology; Supply Chain; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Competition; Product Positioning; Strategy; Financial Services Industry; China;

Citation:

Malloy, Christopher J., Lauren H. Cohen, and Anthony K. Woo. "Dianrong: Marketplace Lending, Blockchain, and 'The New Finance' in China." Harvard Business School Case 218-043, September 2017. (Revised June 2019.) View Details

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Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

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