Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

Walter A. Friedman

Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2007

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

Abstract

A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the use of index numbers, and wrote frequently on the importance of future expectations to businesspeople. He also published forecasts through syndicated newspaper columns and made public pronouncements on the future of the economy—including a notorious statement on the eve of the October 1929 stock-market crash that optimistically predicted that a new high "plateau" for stock prices had been reached. Despite Fisher's poor prediction on that occasion, he played a neglected, but significant role in the growth of the forecasting industry and in the rise of a class of early business analysts.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career;

Language: English

Format: Print

55 pages

Citation:

Friedman, Walter A. "Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-037, November 2007.

Conference Presentation | Aug 2017

To Highlight or Downplay Differences? A Threat-Matching Model for Crafting Diversity Approaches

J. Lees and Evan Apfelbaum

We integrate organizational and psychological scholarship to devise the threat matching model, a contingency theory that illustrates when, how, and which diversity approaches—frameworks leaders provide employees to understand and respond to diversity—promote inclusiveness. Rather than presume the existence of a “best” approach, we theorize that two types of diversity approaches, the value in difference approach (which focuses on the importance of social group differences) and the value in equality approach (which focuses on the importance of equality irrespective of differences), can each be effective, but only when they match the magnitude of threat employees experience and corresponding psychological needs that underlie feelings of inclusion. We propose that the value in equality approach is most effective when threat is high because it satisfies employees’ salient desire to belong and be accepted as an insider, whereas that the value in difference approach is most effective when threat is low because it satisfies employees’ salient desire to be respected for the unique characteristics they contribute. Further, we develop a two-step recursive process for promoting inclusion as threat evolves over time. This model reconciles mixed results in past research, substantively extends existing theory, and informs leaders’ efforts to promote inclusion across contexts.

Keywords: diversity; gender; race and ethnicity; leadership; inclusion; Diversity; Gender; Race; Ethnicity; Equality and Inequality; Leadership;

Citation:

Lees, J., and Evan Apfelbaum. "To Highlight or Downplay Differences? A Threat-Matching Model for Crafting Diversity Approaches." In Making a Case for Diversity: Pros, Cons, and Complexities. Paper presented at the Academy of Management Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, August 2017. View Details

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Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

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