SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access
From the time he transformed the world of online banking, Elon Musk had established himself as a bold innovator eager to challenge the status quo in hopes of, as he put it, advancing human society. After selling X.com to PayPal in 2002, he founded a series of start-ups in pursuit of that dream, starting with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Hoping to "make human life multiplanetary", Musk aimed to establish the first Mars civilization, but was unable to procure rockets that would be cheap or reliable enough to make the journey. Over the course of the next decade, SpaceX would develop a line of revolutionary rockets that transformed the commercial space launch industry. Using reusable rockets to exploit the benefits of economies of scale, SpaceX cut costs to orbit by a factor of 18 and captured a large percentage of the global launch market, once thought to be inaccessible to newcomers in the industry. But after a remarkable decade, Musk's original goal to reach Mars seemed both within reach and impossibly optimistic. SpaceX had proven technologies that would be critical in supporting a crewed mision to Mars, but the cost to get there was estimated to be well above $200 billion dollars in 2014. While revenues from the launch services market were impressive, they were nowhere near the $200 billion needed to develop a Mars civilization. Would there be enough demand for launch services to make Elon Musk's vision a possibility, or would SpaceX have to find other ways to get there?
Keywords: space tech; space access; vision; Economies of Scale; Technological Innovation; Emerging Markets; Commercialization; Finance; Aerospace Industry;
Citation:
Weinzierl, Matthew C., Kylie Lucas, and Mehak Sarang. "SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access." Harvard Business School Case 720-027, April 2020. View Details