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• Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2005 (Revised January 2020)

  The U.S. Current Account Deficit

  Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

  Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications of the deficit were debated with intensity. At one extreme, it was argued that large deficits would eventually resolve themselves smoothly, even if they persisted for many more years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was among those expecting a "benign resolution to the U.S. current account imbalance." Other analysts, such as economists at the World Bank, believed the large deficits raised the risk of a sharp and disorderly fall of the dollar and that necessary macroeconomic adjustment could be painful, for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. The Financial Times asked: "How long will foreigners be prepared to make such generous 'gifts' to the US?" In this environment, Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, postulated that current account imbalances would lead to "some chaotic markets in which currency adjustments play a part" and announced to shareholders a plan to increase investment in overseas companies to protect against this risk. It remained to be seen what the short- and long-term implications of the current account deficit would ultimately yield.

  Keywords: Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States;

  Citation:

  Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson, and Jonathan Schlefer. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit." Harvard Business School Case 706-002, July 2005. (Revised January 2020.)  View Details

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• Teaching Note | HBS Case Collection | May 2006 (Revised November 2019)

  To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

  Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel

  Keywords: China;

  Citation:

  Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "To Float or Not to Float? In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 706-060, May 2006. (Revised November 2019.)  View Details

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• Chapter | Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England | 2019

  Monetary Policy—‘Whatever It Takes within Our (New?) Mandate’

  Huw Pill

  This paper discusses whether the UK's monetary policy framework needs to be reviewed in the light of experience during and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. It concludes that, while the inflation targeting framework has generally proved robust, the Bank of England's monetary policy strategy needs to be updated along two dimensions: (1) to better reflect the accumulation of monetary, financial, and macroeconomic imbalances that have implications for inflation at longer horizons than the two-year forecast horizon upon which inflation targeting central banks typically focus and (2) to introduce limits to the use of quasi-fiscal balance sheet measures by central banks so as to maintain the credibility, independence, and effectiveness of monetary policy.

  Keywords: monetary policy; Money; Policy; United Kingdom;

  Citation:

  Pill, Huw. "Monetary Policy—‘Whatever It Takes within Our (New?) Mandate’." Chap. 3 in Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England, edited by Richard Barwell and Jagjit Chadha, 35–52. London: National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 2019.  View Details

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