Ocean Carriers

Erik   Stafford; Angela  Chao; Kathleen  Luchs

Case | HBS Case Collection | September 2001 (Revised April 2002)

Ocean Carriers

by Erik Stafford, Angela Chao and Kathleen Luchs

Abstract

In January 2001, Mary Linn, vice president of finance for Ocean Carriers, a shipping company with offices in New York and Hong Kong, was evaluating a proposed lease of a ship for a three-year period, beginning in early 2003. The customer was eager to finalize the contract to meet his own commitments and offered very attractive terms. No ship in Ocean Carrier's current fleet met the customer's requirements. Mary Linn, therefore, had to decide whether Ocean Carriers should immediately commission a new capsize carrier that would be completed two years hence and could be leased to the customer.

Keywords: Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost of Capital; Leasing; Corporate Strategy; Valuation; Shipping Industry; New York (city, NY); Hong Kong;

Format: Print

6 pages

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Citation:

Stafford, Erik, Angela Chao, and Kathleen Luchs. "Ocean Carriers." Harvard Business School Case 202-027, September 2001. (Revised April 2002.)

We decompose bank activities into passive and active components and evaluate the performance of the active components of the bank business model by controlling for passive maturity transformation strategies that can be executed in the capital market. Over the period 1960–2016, we find that (1) unlevered bank assets underperform passive portfolios of maturity-matched U.S. Treasury bonds; (2) the cost of bank deposits exceeds the cost of bank debt; (3) bank equities have CAPM betas near one, while passive maturity transformation strategies have CAPM betas near zero; and (4) portfolios of bank equities consistently underperform portfolios designed to passively mimic their economic exposures. The very strong investment performance of passive maturity transformation strategies over this period may mask the underperformance of the specialized bank activities.

Private equity funds tend to select relatively small firms with low EBITDA multiples. Publicly traded equities with these characteristics have high risk-adjusted returns after controlling for common factors typically associated with value stocks. Hold-to-maturity accounting of portfolio net asset value eliminates the majority of measured risk. A passive portfolio of small, low EBITDA multiple stocks with modest amounts of leverage and hold-to-maturity accounting of net asset value produces an unconditional return distribution that is highly consistent with that of the pre-fee aggregate private equity index. The passive replicating strategy represents an economically large improvement in risk- and liquidity-adjusted returns over direct allocations to private equity funds, which charge average fees of 6% per year.

Traditional risk factor models indicate that hedge funds capture pre-fee alphas of 6% to 10% per annum over the period from 1996 to 2012. At the same time, the hedge fund return series is not reliably distinguishable from the returns of mechanical S&P 500 put-writing strategies. We show that the high excess returns to hedge funds and put-writing are consistent with an equilibrium in which a small subset of investors specialize in bearing downside market risks. Required rates of return in such an equilibrium can dramatically exceed those suggested by traditional models, affecting inference about the attractiveness of these investments.

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Ocean Carriers

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