Technical Note on Expectations

Carliss Y. Baldwin

}
//]]>
</script>
<input type="hidden" name="__VIEWSTATEGENERATOR" id="__VIEWSTATEGENERATOR" value="E39AC016" />
<script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.core.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.core.js?rev=7ByNlH\u00252BvcgRJg\u00252BRCctdC0w\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.res.resx", "\u002f_layouts\u002fScriptResx.ashx?culture=en\u00252Dus\u0026name=SP\u00252ERes\u0026rev=b6\u00252FcRx1a6orhAQ\u00252FcF\u00252B0ytQ\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.ui.dialog.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.ui.dialog.js?rev=Tpcmo1\u00252FSu6R0yewHowDl5g\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("sp.ui.dialog.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.ui.dialog.js", "sp.res.resx");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("core.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002f1033\u002fcore.js?rev=Emb5hNX1RZMNXk9oS82yvA\u00253D\u00253D");</script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
var _spFormDigestRefreshInterval = 1440000;window.g_updateFormDigestPageLoaded = new Date(); window.g_updateFormDigestPageLoaded.setDate(window.g_updateFormDigestPageLoaded.getDate() -5);function loadMDN2() { EnsureScript('MDN.js', typeof(loadFilterFn), null); }
function loadMDN1() { ExecuteOrDelayUntilScriptLoaded(loadMDN2, 'sp.ribbon.js'); }
_spBodyOnLoadFunctionNames.push('loadMDN1');//]]>
</script>
<script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.runtime.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.runtime.js?rev=IGffcZfunndj0247nOxKVg\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("sp.runtime.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.runtime.js", "sp.res.resx");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.js?rev=\u00252B4ZEyA892P3T0504qi0paw\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.runtime.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.ui.dialog.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.res.resx");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("cui.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fcui.js?rev=OOyJv78CADNBeet\u00252FvTvniQ\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("inplview", "\u002f_layouts\u002finplview.js?rev=WB6Gy8a027aeNCq7koVCUg\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("inplview", "core.js");RegisterSodDep("inplview", "sp.js");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("ribbon", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.ribbon.js?rev=F\u00252BUEJ66rbXzSvpf7nN69wQ\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "core.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "cui.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.res.resx");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.runtime.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "inplview");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.ui.policy.resources.resx", "\u002f_layouts\u002fScriptResx.ashx?culture=en\u00252Dus\u0026name=SP\u00252EUI\u00252EPolicy\u00252EResources\u0026rev=YhBHGmUAGyJ3lAgSdE4V\u00252Fw\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("mdn.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fmdn.js?rev=gwmFFJ2\u00252FfFacqXWAqG\u00252FqKg\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.runtime.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "cui.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "ribbon");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.ui.policy.resources.resx");</script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[

function _spNavigateHierarchyEx(nodeDiv, dataSourceId, dataPath, url, listInContext, type, additionalQString) {
    SetAdditionalNavigateHierarchyQString(additionalQString);
    g_originalSPNavigateFunc(nodeDiv, dataSourceId, dataPath, url, listInContext, type);
}

g_originalSPNavigateFunc = _spNavigateHierarchy;
_spNavigateHierarchy = _spNavigateHierarchyEx;
var _fV4UI = true;//]]>
</script>
<script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("msstring.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002f1033\u002fmsstring.js?rev=QtiIcPH3HV7LgVSO7vONFg\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("browserScript", "\u002f_layouts\u002f1033\u002fnon_ie.js?rev=EVTj1bu32\u00252FMla6SDN\u00252FsNTA\u00253D\u00253D");</script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
var __wpmExportWarning='This Web Part Page has been personalized. As a result, one or more Web Part properties may contain confidential information. Make sure the properties contain information that is safe for others to read. After exporting this Web Part, view properties in the Web Part description file (.WebPart) by using a text editor such as Microsoft Notepad.';var __wpmCloseProviderWarning='You are about to close this Web Part.  It is currently providing data to other Web Parts, and these connections will be deleted if this Web Part is closed.  To close this Web Part, click OK.  To keep this Web Part, click Cancel.';var __wpmDeleteWarning='You are about to permanently delete this Web Part.  Are you sure you want to do this?  To delete this Web Part, click OK.  To keep this Web Part, click Cancel.';//]]>
</script>
</form>

Go to main content

Technical Note | HBS Case Collection | August 2001

Technical Note on Expectations

by Carliss Y. Baldwin

Abstract

Reviews the mathematics of expectations embedded in a company's current stock price and the related (whole) enterprise value. Begins by showing how the current stock price can be compounded forward to arrive at an expectation one or more years in the future. Describes the log normal distribution of the current stock price, the consistent updating of expectations, and the resolution of uncertainty through time.

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Price; Stocks;

Format: Print

8 pages

Find at Harvard

Citation:

Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Technical Note on Expectations." Harvard Business School Technical Note 902-055, August 2001.

About the Author

Carliss Y. Baldwin

William L. White Professor of Business Administration, Emerita

View Profile »
View Publications »

More from the Author

Case | HBS Case Collection | November 2019

Apple, Einhorn, and iPrefs (Abridged)

Carliss Y. Baldwin and W. Carl Kester

In March 2013, Apple Computer has a very large cash balance, and is under pressure to return cash to shareholders. Hedge fund manager David Einhorn thinks Apple can "unlock value" by issuing perpetual preferred stock, dubbed iPrefs. Henry Blodget, CEO of Business Insider, disagrees, saying "you can't just wave your magic wand and make something of nothing." This short case is designed to support a discussion of "perfect" markets and the Modigliani-Miller capital structure irrelevance propositions. The case focuses on two questions: (1) From a shareholder's perspective, how is Apple's cash different from cash in a bank or money market account? (2) Can Apple create significant value for shareholders by splitting each common share into an iPref plus a common share?

Keywords: markets; Stock Shares; Value Creation; Business and Shareholder Relations;

Citation:
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and W. Carl Kester. "Apple, Einhorn, and iPrefs (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 220-043, November 2019. View Details

Cite View Details Educators Related
Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019

Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 16 Capturing Value by Controlling Bottlenecks in Open Platform Systems

Carliss Y. Baldwin

The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the means by which firms capture value in open platform systems. I begin by arguing that the surplus value created by complementarities within a technical system will be split among the owners of the unique and essential components—the strategic bottlenecks in the system. However, most platforms must also execute a series of steps that are subject to “flow production” bottlenecks. Finding and fixing these flow bottlenecks is another way to capture value. In addition, two types of platform improvements provide further opportunities for value capture. “Accelerators” speed up the processing of options, while “subsidiary” platforms increase the range of options available to users. Finally, members of a platform system or new entrants may seek to supplant the owner of a strategic bottleneck by “disintermediating” platform components. I describe four generic methods of disintermediation: substitution, reverse engineering, platform independent complements, and platform envelopment.

Keywords: open platforms; bottlenecks; flow production; Value Capture; disintermediation; Production; Management;

Citation:
Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 16 Capturing Value by Controlling Bottlenecks in Open Platform Systems." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-054, November 2019. View Details

Cite View Details SSRN Read Now Related
Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2019

Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 17 The Wintel Standards-based Platform

Carliss Y. Baldwin

The purpose of this chapter is to use the theory of bottlenecks laid out in previous chapters to better understand the dynamics of an open standards-based platform. I describe how the Wintel platform evolved from 1990 through 2000 under joint sponsorship of Intel and Microsoft. I first describe a series of technical bottlenecks that arose in the early 1990s concerning the “bus architecture” of IBM-compatible PCs. Intel’s management of buses demonstrates how, under conditions of distributed supermodular complementarity, a platform sponsor can reconfigure the modular structure of a technical system, property rights within the system, and its own zone of authority to increase system-wide throughput, while protecting its own strategic bottleneck from disintermediation. I go on to describe how Microsoft used platform envelopment to establish a second strategic bottleneck in productivity software and later to respond to the threat of disintermediation from platform-independent internet browsers. I end the chapter by discussing the conditions under which shared platform sponsorship can be a long-term dynamic equilibrium.

Keywords: open platforms; bottlenecks; Wintel platform; disintermediation; Hardware; Software; Business History; Computer Industry;

Citation:
Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Design Rules, Volume 2: How Technology Shapes Organizations: Chapter 17 The Wintel Standards-based Platform." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-055, November 2019. View Details

Cite View Details SSRN Read Now Related

Faculty & Research

Technical Note on Expectations

Abstract

Citation:

About the Author

More from the Author