Venture Capital Investment Cycles: The Impact of Public Markets

Paul  Gompers; Anna  Kovner; Josh   Lerner; David  Scharfstein

Article | Journal of Financial Economics | January 2008

Venture Capital Investment Cycles: The Impact of Public Markets

by Paul Gompers, Anna Kovner, Josh Lerner and David Scharfstein

Abstract

It is well documented that the venture capital industry is highly volatile and that much of this volatility is associated with shifting valuations and activity in public equity markets. This paper examines how changes in public market signals affected venture capital investing between 1975 and 1998. We find that venture capitalists with the most industry experience increase their investments the most when public market signals become more favorable. Their reaction to an increase is greater than the reaction of venture capital organizations with relatively little industry experience and those with considerable experience but in other industries. The increase in investment rates does not affect the success of these transactions adversely to a significant extent. These findings are consistent with the view that venture capitalists rationally respond to attractive investment opportunities signaled by public market shifts.

Keywords: Venture Capital; Investment; Experience and Expertise; Public Equity; Volatility; Financial Services Industry;

Format: Print

23 pages

Find at Harvard Read Now

Citation:

Gompers, Paul, Anna Kovner, Josh Lerner, and David Scharfstein. "Venture Capital Investment Cycles: The Impact of Public Markets." Journal of Financial Economics 87, no. 1 (January 2008): 1–23. (Earlier versions distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 11385.)

Silkroad—a cross-cultural music collaboration that world-famous cellist Yo-Yo Ma had spearheaded since 1998, was preparing to celebrate its 20th anniversary. In parallel, Ma was stepping back from his role as the organization’s Artistic Director. Silkroad had come of age, gaining international recognition for its uniquely global music, which blended musical traditions from across the world—especially Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America. The Ensemble had also forged strong partnerships with universities, local governments, and civic groups and developed an array of outreach programs to help people understand and express themselves through music. Ma was confident that there could be no better time to hand over leadership. But the transition was bittersweet: He felt a deep personal connection both to the Ensemble as a whole and to every one of its performers and staff members. And he wondered how reducing his involvement would affect the organization’s sustainability.

We examine thousands of U.S. private equity (PE) buyouts from 1980 to 2013, a period that saw huge swings in credit market tightness and GDP growth. Our results show striking, systematic differences in the real-side effects of PE buyouts, depending on buyout type and external conditions. Employment at target firms shrinks 13% over two years in buyouts of publicly listed firms but expands 13% in buyouts of privately held firms, both relative to contemporaneous outcomes at control firms. Labor productivity rises 8% at targets over two years post buyout (again, relative to controls), with large gains for both public-to-private and private-to-private buyouts. Target productivity gains are larger yet for deals executed amidst tight credit conditions. A post-buyout widening of credit spreads or slowdown in GDP growth lowers employment growth at targets and sharply curtails productivity gains in public-to-private and divisional buyouts. Average earnings per worker fall by 1.7% at target firms after buyouts, largely erasing a pre-buyout wage premium relative to controls. Wage effects are also heterogeneous. In these and other respects, the economic effects of private equity vary greatly by buyout type and with external conditions.

Hony Capital, a multi-billion dollar private equity firm based in China, is investing in a subsidiary of Jushi Group, a Chinese company that is one of the world’s largest fiberglass producers. The specific project will build a plant in the United States. In this case, students consider the value Hony can provide to Jushi, and must also determine how Hony will eventually exit the transaction, given the complexity around its structure.

Faculty & Research

Venture Capital Investment Cycles: The Impact of Public Markets

Abstract

Citation:

About the Authors

More from these Authors