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  • August 2006
  • Article
  • Journal of Banking & Finance

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
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Abstract

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation methods, cohort and duration (intensity), with 22 years of credit ratings data. We find that the bootstrapped intervals for the duration based estimates are relatively tight when compared to either analytic or bootstrapped intervals around the less efficient cohort estimator. We show how the large differences between the point estimates and confidence intervals of these two estimators are consistent with non-Markovian migration behavior. Surprisingly, even with these relatively tight confidence intervals, it is impossible to distinguish notch-level PDs for investment grade ratings, e.g. a PDAA- from a PDA+. However, once the speculative grade barrier is crossed, we are able to distinguish quite cleanly notch-level estimated PDs. Conditioning on the state of the business cycle helps: it is easier to distinguish adjacent PDs in recessions than in expansions.

Keywords

Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management

Citation

Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
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About The Author

Samuel G. Hanson

Finance
→More Publications

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  • Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
  • The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo
  • Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
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