Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker

Rafael   Di Tella; Robert  MacCulloch

Article | Review of Economics and Statistics | November 2004

Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker

by Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch

Abstract

In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be expected in such theories. Because unemployment benefits make the monetary authority less concerned about the plight of the unemployed, building a welfare state has a similar effect to appointing a conservative central banker. The relationship holds in a panel of 20 OECD countries over the period 1961-1992, a region where Romer finds no evidence of commitment problems. It holds controlling for country and time fixed effects, country-specific time trends, other covariates, and using a decadal panel. Interpreted as causal, the estimated effect is economically large: a 1 standard deviation decrease in benefit duration is predicted to add 1.4 percentage points onto inflation, or 31% of the standard deviation in inflation.

Keywords: unemployment; welfare state; Compensation and Benefits; Inflation and Deflation;

Format: Print

13 pages

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Citation:

Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker." Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (November 2004): 911–23.

Case | HBS Case Collection | July 2005 (Revised October 2019)

The U.S. Current Account Deficit

Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications of the deficit were debated with intensity. At one extreme, it was argued that large deficits would eventually resolve themselves smoothly, even if they persisted for many more years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was among those expecting a "benign resolution to the U.S. current account imbalance." Other analysts, such as economists at the World Bank, believed the large deficits raised the risk of a sharp and disorderly fall of the dollar and that necessary macroeconomic adjustment could be painful, for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. The Financial Times asked: "How long will foreigners be prepared to make such generous 'gifts' to the US?" In this environment, Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, postulated that current account imbalances would lead to "some chaotic markets in which currency adjustments play a part" and announced to shareholders a plan to increase investment in overseas companies to protect against this risk. It remained to be seen what the short- and long-term implications of the current account deficit would ultimately yield.

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States;

Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson, and Jonathan Schlefer. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit." Harvard Business School Case 706-002, July 2005. (Revised October 2019.) View Details

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Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker

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