The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

Malcolm  Baker; Robin  Greenwood; Jeffrey  Wurgler

Abstract

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term spread predict excess bond returns. Second, these same variables explain the long-term share, and together account for much of its own ability to predict excess bond returns. The results are consistent with survey evidence that firms use debt market conditions in an effort to determine the lowest-cost maturity at which to borrow.

Citation:

Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.

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Case | HBS Case Collection | March 2018

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In February 2011, Adam Koppel, a Managing Director at Brookside Capital, the public equity arm of Bain Capital, must decide whether to increase or exit the firm’s position in Celgene Corporation. News has emerged that raises potential safety concerns associated with Celgene’s key drug, Revlimid. In response, Celgene’s share price has traded down 20% in the last two months, and is now almost 10% below the level where Brookside made their initial investment.

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Baker, Malcolm, and Emily McComb. "Celgene." Harvard Business School Case 218-094, March 2018. View Details

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In February 2011, Adam Koppel, a Managing Director at Brookside Capital, the public equity arm of Bain Capital, must decide whether to increase or exit the firm’s position in Celgene Corporation. News has emerged that raises potential safety concerns associated with Celgene’s key drug, Revlimid. In response, Celgene’s share price has traded down 20% in the last two months, and is now almost 10% below the level where Brookside made their initial investment.

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The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

Abstract

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