Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance, one can look at past product rollouts, one can look at similar products currently in the marketplace, or one can do test markets—selling the product in a small section of the country to assess consumer acceptance. Quite often, for new products that represent incremental variations or improvements over existing products, marketers do a pretty good job of understanding how that product will be adopted in the marketplace. This is not to say that managers always get it right, as has been made evidently clear in the case of New Coke, dry beers, and the Edsel. However, more often than not, managers of incremental new products predict demand within the right order of magnitude.
Keywords: marketing; Diffusion Processes; product adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch; Marketing;
Citation:
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018. View Details