Doctoral Student

J. Peter Scoblic

J. Peter Scoblic is a doctoral student in Management at Harvard Business School. Before coming to HBS, he served as executive editor of Foreign Policy and The New Republic. He was also deputy staff director of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, where he worked on approval of the New START agreement and was the chief foreign policy speechwriter for Chairman John Kerry.

In 2008, Viking Press published his book, U.S. vs. Them, an intellectual history of the modern conservative movement and its impact on American foreign policy.

He is a fellow at the New America Foundation, and he has been a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as well as a visiting researcher at Georgetown University’s Center for Peace and Security Studies. He received his A.B. in political science, with honors, from Brown University.

Journal Articles

  1. Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments

    Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic

    Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make predictions—even for seemingly “unique” events—and showed that tournaments are a useful tool for generating knowledge. Drawing on the literature about the effects of accountability, the authors suggest that tournaments may hold even greater potential as tools for depolarizing political debates and resolving policy disputes.

    Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; tournaments; politics; depolarization; knowledge creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics;

    Citation:

    Tetlock, Philip E., Barbara A. Mellers, and J. Peter Scoblic. "Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments." Science 355, no. 6324 (February 3, 2017): 481–483. View Details