Doctoral Student

Pavel Kireyev

Pavel is a doctoral student in quantitative marketing. He holds an MA in statistics from Yale and a BSc in business mathematics and statistics from the LSE. For more information, please visit:

Journal Articles

  1. Do Display Ads Influence Search?: Attribution and Dynamics in Online Advertising

    Pavel Kireyev, Koen Pauwels and Sunil Gupta

    As firms increasingly rely on online media to acquire consumers, marketing managers feel comfortable justifying higher online marketing spending by referring to online metrics such as click-through rate (CTR) and cost per acquisition (CPA). However, these standard online advertising metrics are plagued with attribution problems and do not account for dynamics. These issues can easily lead firms to overspend on some actions and thus waste money, and/or underspend in others, leaving money on the table.
    We develop a multivariate time series model to investigate the interaction between paid search and display ads, and calibrate the model using data from a large commercial bank that uses online ads to acquire new checking account customers. We find that display ads significantly increase search conversion. Both search and display ads also exhibit significant dynamics that improve their effectiveness and ROI over time. Finally, in addition to increasing search conversion, display ad exposure also increases search clicks, thereby increasing search advertising costs. After accounting for these three effects, we find that each $1 invested in display and search leads to a return of $1.24 for display and $1.75 for search ads, which contrasts sharply with the estimated returns based on standard metrics. We use these results to show how optimal budget allocation may shift dramatically after accounting for attribution and dynamics. Although display benefits from attribution, the strong dynamic effects of search call for an increase in search advertising budget share by up to 36% in our empirical context.

    Keywords: Search Technology; Online Advertising;


    Kireyev, Pavel, Koen Pauwels, and Sunil Gupta. "Do Display Ads Influence Search? Attribution and Dynamics in Online Advertising."International Journal of Research in Marketing (forthcoming). View Details

Working Papers

  1. Markets for Ideas: Prize Structure, Entry Limits, and the Design of Ideation Contests

    Pavel Kireyev

    Contests are a popular mechanism for the procurement of innovation. In marketing, design, and other creative industries, firms use freelance marketplaces to organize contests and obtain high-quality ideas for ads, new products, and even business strategies from participants. A central question faced by contest sponsors is how to appropriately structure prizes and entry regulations. I develop an empirical model of idea generation (ideation) contests and investigate the impact of the number of prizes, prize amount, and submission limit on participation and quality outcomes using data from a popular marketing ideation platform. The model explains participant submission decisions, jury ratings, and sponsor rankings of winning submissions. Counterfactuals reveal the impact of design parameters on outcomes and provide guidance for the optimal design of ideation contests and platforms.

    Keywords: idea generation; crowdsourcing; contest design; structural estimation; Motivation and Incentives; Competition; Innovation and Invention;


    Kireyev, Pavel. "Markets for Ideas: Prize Structure, Entry Limits, and the Design of Ideation Contests." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-129, May 2016. View Details